7.10pm Thirsk Tips & Betting Preview 18/07/2017

This is a Class 5 handicap raced over 1m 4f, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Mysterial arrives here on the back of an excellent win and he has escaped a penalty for that success. That leaves him well-treated again but he’s likely to be taken on for the lead and that could set the race up for SIR RUNS A LOT. He’s only making his 6th career start today but he showed clear improvement last time out and he will absolutely relish the longer trip. If they go too hard early, he’s likely to be the benefactor and he can win this for David Barron.

1 ITLAAQ – The only C&D winner in the race, Mick Easterby’s runner has been a good servant to connections, now making his 67th career start. He put in a poor run last time out at Doncaster but the ground may have been slightly too soft for him and he’s now back onto a threatening mark of 75. He was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths off this mark in May and Harrison Shaw’s 7lb claim leaves him well-treated. Could run a big race off what could be a fair mark.

2 SHERIFF OF NAWTON – Makes his third start for Roger Fell today and he will need to take a massive step forward on what he’s shown of late. He’s been beaten 86 and 7 1/4 lengths on his last two starts respectively and the latest of those efforts came just 3 days ago. He remains on a mark of 73 and he’s hard to make a case for given he’s without a win since May 2015. Best watched today.

3 CHANT – Ran a fine race in similar conditions to today’s last month and he’s entitled to come on for that run having made his seasonal reappearance that day. He’s left on a mark of 70 which is what he won off last summer and he will appreciate the quicker ground although he’s going to be taken on for the lead and will have to be settled early. One to watch in the betting but the chance of a contested lead is off-putting.

4 UP TEN DOWN TWO – Second runner in this for Mick Easterby and he seeks his first win on the turf having failed to score in 12 starts on the surface. He failed to complete a hat-trick of wins last time out having won twice on the All-Weather in March and whilst he could come on for that run, his record on this surface is off-putting and the handicapper has shown little generosity. Best watched in this in this tougher grade.

5 MYSTERIAL – Arrives here on the back of a neck success at Pontefract last time out, beating a smart sort from the front. That was an impressive performance given his rider dropped his whip and the first-time visor clearly brought out some improvement in him off a falling mark. He escapes a penalty for that success which leaves him on excellent terms in this and he should go well again. He will face pressure for the lead today which is a concern.

6 HAYWARD FIELD – Noel Wilson has a poor 5% strike rate at Thirsk and that record doesn’t look set to be improved tonight. His son of Cape Blanco remains a maiden from 7 career starts and his two latest efforts have been abysmal, finishing 37 and 19 1/2 lengths respectively behind the winners. He’s been dropped 5lbs in the weights which looks fair but he’s evidently not forward and should struggle again.

7 BLUSHING RED – Ed Dunlop has only sent 11 runners to Thirsk and he has tasted success with two of them. It could be significant therefore to see his 3yo take his chance today against older rivals. He’s well-in on these terms and he’s been dropped 2lbs following a heavy defeat at Sandown last month. He was gelded soon after that run and whilst he may just need this run, he remains unexposed and should give a good account of himself. Worth attention in the betting.

8 STECCANDO – 10-race maiden who showed improved form last time out to finish third of ten in a Class 6 maiden over C&D. He steps up in class today which will make life significantly harder although the handicapper has been fair and left him on a mark of 61. He could build on his latest run and is worth a second look in the betting with the possibility of a place if he progresses from his latest outing. That shouldn’t be taken for granted though.

9 SIR RUNS A LOT – David Barron’s runner is lightly-raced for a 5yo, having only raced five times to date. However, he showed clear improvement last time out and he will relish this extra distance today. His dam’s sire is Montjeu and his sire is Sir Percy so there is every reason to think there is more to come over further and a mark of 59 could be quite generous. He could provide some value in this for a yard with a 21% strike rate in the past fortnight.

10 CORREGGIO – Finds winning hard these days having gone without success since July 2015 and he struggles to replicate his form away from Pontefract. He’s down another 3lbs in the weights following a 3 3/4 length defeat last time out and whilst that wasn’t the worst of runs, he doesn’t look weighted to score and he is vulnerable in this for win purposes.

11 GOOD TIME AHEAD – Second of the two 3yo’s in this who receives some useful weight from his older rivals. He’s fairly exposed for a 3yo, making his 20th career start today and he has only won once in 19 starts. That came in a maiden earlier this year and he is clearly a hard sort to deal with. He is likely to struggle again today, arriving here on the back of a 14-length defeat in a four-runner race last time out.

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