7.00pm Newcastle Tips & Betting Preview 01/02/2017

The curtain closer at Newcastle is a six furlong handicap, see our betting tips and the full race preview.

IN SUMMARY: It’d be most disappointing if DODGY BOB couldn’t capitalise on a career low mark of 70. He’s now 8lb below his last winning mark and ran well off this mark at Southwell on his latest start when only beaten around a length in fourth place. Kevin Ryan’s yard is in great form at present and jockey Lewis Edmunds is also in good form, so all signs point to a bit run and he has to be respected. He’s likely to see off the attentions of Palenville, who has shown enough lately to suggest she can win a race of this nature and the drop back to 6f looks certain to suit.

1 ART OBSESSION – Has shown he’s capable off this mark in the past including on his penultimate start over C&D when a close third in October. Broke a blood vessel when last seen at Catterick two weeks later (6f, Soft), so does have a 99 day absence to overcome, which has to be of concern. Likely best watched on his first start for three months as others have race fitness on their side and arguably better form.

2 PALENVILLE – Has been running well of late and was tiring late on when a good third at Wolverhampton over seven furlongs in January. The same can be said of her second at Kempton over the seven furlongs on her penultimate start, tiring late on and unable to sustain her finish. That would suggest the drop to six furlongs should suit and she has won at this trip in the past, with a mark of 75 clearly not beyond her at present. Set to run very well and has to be respected.

3 SEMANA SANTA – Hasn’t won since her maiden success at Wolverhampton in April 2016 though has been running respectably of late, finishing a sixth in a blanket finish at Southwell a few weeks ago (6f, Std) which was a good effort. Doesn’t however seem to have much room for error of a mark of 73 as she’s been hitting the crossbar a lot of this mark and may just need the handicapper to be a bit kinder before she can return to winning ways. Considered for placings but will need the perfect round for win purposes.

4 SILHUETTE – Showed promise a juvenile, winning her first two starts including a class 3 event at Ripon in August 2015 (6f, Soft), but has struggled ever since. Started off in handicaps off a mark of 88 and races off 13lb lower today, last seen finishing fifteenth of sixteen at Redcar in November (7f, Good to Soft). Can be easily opposed today and cannot be considered until she shows some of her earlier sparkle in handicaps.

5 SAVANNAH BEAU – Won over C&D three starts back in November off a 3lb lower mark than today’s, though she’s struggled the last twice and refused to settle at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago (5f, Std). Will need to settle much better if she’s to be considered and she’s yet to win off a mark this high which is of concern. Has to enter calculations nonetheless and likely to be fighting for places as long as she’s more settled out of the blocks.

6 DODGY BOB – Now on a career low mark of 70 and ran well off this mark on his latest start when beaten only a length back in fourth place in a blanket finish at Southwell (6f, Std). He’s now 8lb below his last winning mark and it’d be most disappointing if he was not able to capitalise on this leniency from the handicapper. Kevin Ryan’s yard is in great form at present and jockey Lewis Edmunds is also in good form, so all signs point to a bit run and he has to be respected.

7 BARON RUN – 5-25 which is quite a good record in this company though he’s yet to win on the all weather in three runs and did miss the entirety of 2016. Entitled to need his return run in mid-January and is now 7lb below his last winning mark which makes him very interesting as he is well in on that regard. Could be very good Each Way value if returning to near his best under 5lb claimer Russell Harris and may run into the placings if doing so.

8 MR MORSE – Only raced four times thus far and won on the third attempt in a maiden at Southwell in December, running on late to snatch the prize (6f, Std). Not so good however on handicap debut when well beaten at Southwell upped to 7f, not showing a great deal in that run. The drop back to 6f should suit though it’s hard not to be suspicious of that handicap debut and he races off the same mark today. Brian Ellison’s yard is going brilliantly at present with a record of 7-1`9 in the past two weeks and may run well, but is a risky proposition.

9 BURTONWOOD – Being back onto his last winning mark wasn’t enough for him to return to the winners enclosure on his latest start when fourth at Wolverhampton in January (5f, Std). A consistent sort whose likely to run well again back up in trip, a mark of 64 seems to be the limit of his ability and he’ll need everything to go right and be at the top of his game if he’s to win today. Stall 6 isn’t necessarily a bad thing with Kieran Schofield claiming 3lb, but there is a suspicion he will be left fighting for minor honours until the handicapper is kinder to him.