7.00pm Killarney Tips & Betting Preview 17/07/2017

Just the three runnings of this contest so far with one winner each for Aidan O’Brien, David Wachman, and Andrew Slattery at odds of 11/8, 6/1, and 11/4, so little to learn other than the better fancied horses have always won – so far. A flat mile for three-year-olds and above seems a true test here for the fillies and mares who get the opportunity to race against their own sex for the £30,000 first prize and it should be a decent contest. Read on for our detailed horse by horse race preview – with our selection, of course.

IN SUMMARY: Aidan O’Brien has tried his hardest to muddy the waters with four entries but ASKING stands out on form and looks to have plenty in hand on all known form lines. She ought to prove too good for Petticoat who could yet be the one for the forecast.

1 CAMELLIA JAPONICA – first time blinkers for Joseph Murphy’s daughter of Zoffany who seems sure to go well for a yard currently boasting a 25% strike rate with two winners form the last eight runners and an eight points level stakes profit in the last two weeks. Her one win in twelve starts was in a six furlong maiden at The Curragh back in June last year but she ran her best race in a while recently when third to Eagle Spirit in a ten furlong handicap at odds of 16/1 earlier this month. The headgear may bring some improvement but not the thirty pounds or so she needs to find to get competitive here.

2 CIRIN TOINNE – Trained by the legendary Jim Bolger the daughter of top sire Galileo has a few pounds to find here, but cannot be written off quite that easily for her astute stable. Two wins so far have been in maiden class and then in a rated race over a furlong further at Tipperary in late June but this is a class above that and may well find her out. Wears a tongue tie and could threaten the places though nothing more on all known form.

3 VALENTANA – Up against it for trainer William McCleery and needs to do a lot better than her last run when a five and a quarter length tenth of thirteen to Asking at The Curragh in a seven-furlong handicap. Meets that rival on eight pounds worse terms here which gives her next to no chance of success this afternoon taking that run at face value, and although wearing a tongue tie for the first time here, she looks to have too much to find to get involved.

4 ASKING – Five pounds clear of all her rivals according to the official ratings and likely to prove hard to beat here for the Aidan O’Brien stable. The yard are in great form at witnessed at Newmarket last week and can boast a 27% strike rate in the last fortnight and the daughter of Zoffany should take a lot of beating. Last time out she finished third to Realtra at Fairyhouse in the Group Three Brownstown Stakes when running on after being short of room over seven furlongs and she does look to have an excellent chance today dropped in class, but is not the only O’Brien representative – Ana O’Brien rides.

5 DILMUN – One of four entries here who won last time out in this field after she took her maiden at Dundalk over this trip by two and three-quarter lengths staying on well late on. This is obviously a big step up in class for Joseph O’Brien’s filly who will be ridden by Donnacha O’Brien who said after her recent win “Dilmun had a nice run the last day and did that nicely today. She’s a nice filly and I would say she will have no problem getting 1m2f”, which suggests she may well find this a bit too quick for her in this company, though there is any amount of room for further improvement.

6 RUMFAD BAY – After a bit of a purple patch Mrs Harrington’s horses have gone off the boil a little recently with just the one winner from seventeen runners in the past fortnight (6%), and the daughter of Acclamation seems unlikely to enhance those figures. Four runs this season are yet to yield a victory though she has finished second twice in Listed class, both at Naas before a below par twenty-three length nineteenth of twenty-four in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot with no obvious excuses. She is clearly better than that appeared, but needs to prove her well-being before she can be suggested as a potential winner though a pale is very much a possibility.

7 FURIOSA – One win from the nine starts for Ken Condon’s filly and that was a maiden at Gowran Park on much softer ground than she seems likely to face this evening. Two losses since then have seen a well beaten sixth to Key To My Heart in this class at Naas in the mile and a quarter Oaks trial in late June and an eleven and a half length fourth of five to Elegant Pose back at Gowran Park over nine and a half furlongs. With the stable without a winner from twelve runners in the last fourteen days it is hard to make any kind of case for the daughter of Bushranger and she would be a surprise winner here.

8 MUSIC BOX – Seamie Heffernan rides the second of the Aidan O’Brien four engaged in this contest and won her last race at Naas in a six-furlong handicap when missing the break but hanging on well from the closers once she did get to the front. She did finish a mere length behind Asking on her racecourse debut over this trip back in March after she arrived from the David Wachman stable, and is actually three pounds better off this afternoon, and with Seamie in the saddle her chances look interesting to put it mildly as she steps back up in trip.

9 OLD TIME WALTZ – O’Brien challenger number three has Michael Hussey in the saddle and the War Front filly has placed second in both runs since winning a Naas handicap in June, one each at Limerick and Bellewstown. Another stepping up in class this evening and looks to have plenty to find on both form and official ratings.

10 PETTICOAT – Mick Halford’s Godolphin owned daughter of Cape Cross is lightly raced with just the four starts, winning the third of them in a mile maiden at Leopardstown by two and a quarter lengths from Belle Boyd when only needing to be pushed out for an easy victory. One race since saw a six and a quarter length fourth over a mile and a quarter in the Listed Oaks Trial where she had Furiosa in behind. She clearly failed to see out the trip that day fading rapidly late on, but back at a mile this evening she really ought to be a major player here for a stable ticking over at an acceptable if not inspiring 10%.

11 PUPPETSHOW – Five races without a win is unusual for any Ballydoyle inmate let alone a daughter of Galileo, but it took her that long before winning her maiden last time out over this trip at Limerick when sent off a pretty generous 9/4 shot. Donnacha O’Brien got off her after that saying Puppetshow is a filly with plenty of ability and is much better than them but the thing was to get her to relax and do things right”, suggesting it wasn’t really much of a race, and although she may improve further the suspicion is they are looking for a place in any Listed race to enhance her value once retired to the breeding paddocks.

12 RUBY SHOES –  One of the darkest of the runners here after two runs provided her supporters with a seventy-two length twelfth of fourteen over a mile and a quarter at Cork and then a comfortable two length maiden win at odds of 10/1 over seven and a half furlongs here at Tipperary. That was a “hands and heel”s ride by Donnacha O’Brien which suggests there was plenty left in the tank if needed, but then again, the daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar is taking an almighty leap of faith on that form trying her hand in Listed class. No one can really guess how much more improvement she has to come (if any), but she did catch the eye when last seen and it would not be too much of a surprise to see her challenging here with the great Pat Smullen in the saddle.

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