6.50pm Nottingham Tips & Betting Preview 12/05/2017

This is a Class 4 handicap over an extended mile, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: There are a few with chances in this and the vote goes to PUMAFLOR. He was given a little bit too much to do on his last run having been ridden from in-behind but the way he shaped suggests that he could be on a nice mark and is worth another go here today. Haraz heads the betting but he’s a 17-race maiden which is incredibly off-putting whilst Magic City looks to be lingering on a nice mark with his riders claim.

1 IMPERIAL STATE – Finished sixth of 11 on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford last month off today’s mark. He ran to a fair level having looked to need the run and he’s likely to do much better now switched back onto the turf. He remains 5lbs higher than his last winning mark but this mark looks fair and George Scott has sent out two winners from his last 7 runners. Would be interesting with market support.

2 PIRATE’S TREASURE – Returns to action off a long break following one run in Ireland last summer for John Hanlon. He makes his stable debut for Jennie Candlish today and he’s likely to need this run for a yard that have been quiet of late. He’s 6lbs higher than his last winning mark and given he was beaten 16 lengths off today’s rating in Ireland, he’s probably best watched in this.

3 ABUSHAMAH – Returns to his last winning mark today following a heavy defeat at Pontefract last month. That came over a mile on Good to Firm ground and those conditions are replicated here which should be fine given he’s versatile in terms of ground. He’s slightly more exposed than some of his rivals and he’s vulnerable to a couple of improving sorts but he is on a fair mark and a good run is expected.

4 PUMAFLOR – Has a similar profile to Ruth Carr’s runner and he has been dropped a pound following a 6 1/4 length defeat at Doncaster just under a fortnight ago. He was a tad outpaced that day having been held up at the back and he should benefit from a more prominent ride today in similar conditions. He’s only won once from 14 starts for this yard and others make slightly more appeal today.

5 SAXO JACK – Was once-rated 105 having won a decent handicap in Meydan a few years ago. He’s gone badly backwards since having missed 18 months of racing and he was picked up for just £4,500 last year for his new stable. He’s been beaten 146 1/2 lengths in just three starts for Sophie Leech and he’s clearly not the horse he once was and his latest starting prices of 100/1, 28/1 and 66/1 tell you all you need to know. Best watched today.

6 ZLATAN – Finally took advantage of a falling mark last season to win two handicaps off marks of 56 and 68. He struggled on his return to action over C&D last month off the same mark although he should do better with that run under his belt and the 3lb claim of Callum Shepherd. He may just find this ground slightly on the fast side having won on Good to Soft and Soft and that makes him unappealing today.

7 HARAZ – 17-race maiden who has finished second on five occasions. He’s shown more than enough ability to suggest he can win a race and he finished fourth on his last start when only beaten a length off this mark. He’s worthy of another chance today now back up in trip and switched onto the turf although this does look slightly tougher and his overall profile is rather unappealing. The stable have a poor 6% strike rate here.

8 HOUSE OF COMMONS – Has been slightly frustrating of late having promised plenty following a success on the All-Weather earlier this year. He’s been well-supported on all his starts since but he’s found a few too good and the handicapper looks to have him where he wants him off a mark of 77 and that tempers enthusiasm today. The stable has a positive 14% strike rate at Nottingham and he should run his race again.

9 MAGIC CITY – Hacked up by 4 1/2 lengths off a 4lb lower mark at Newcastle in March. He was well-supported that day and Harrison Shaw takes over in the saddle which puts him back down onto an effective mark of 69 which should see him put in a good challenge today. Stall 1 is fine although the blinkers are left off today and the yard have only sent out one winner from 22 runners in the past fortnight.

10 TOPOLOGY – Lightly-raced maiden who finished second of seven off a one pound higher mark last October on the sand. He’s failed to follow that up and he’s been off the track since November so there are some slight doubts about him as he returns to action today for a yard that have been relatively quiet of late. Stall 11 isn’t the most perfect draw and he needs to raise his game if he is to come out on top today.

11 INVICTUS – Well-beaten in five starts this winter over hurdles and on the sand for this stable. He’s fallen 5lbs in the weights and he will need to move further down the handicap on his latest evidence before appealing at the weights. His last win came in October 2015 in Germany and he looks like a tricky horse to train and is best watched in this although the stable has sent out two winners from their last 6 runners.

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