6.50pm Chelmsford Tips & Betting Preview 19/07/2016

An unbeaten 3yo heads the market for this 7f handicap on Tuesday’s Chelmsford card but our betting tips identify and each-way alternative. Read our race preview for full details.

IN SUMMARY: It’s easy to make a good case for the unbeaten 3yo Certified, who looked a horse to follow when scoring by 3l on his seasonal/handicap debut at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago. However, he’s up in class today and has predictably been made a fairly short-priced favourite, so it could pay to oppose him with an each-way play on JAMMY GUEST. George Margarson’s 6yo doesn’t want this to become tactical but he’ll be suited by today’s return to the AW after a modest turf run last month, looked progressive in early 2016 and could still have more to offer if this race is run to suit. Dollar Reward is also likely to benefit from today’s return to Polytrack and it would be dangerous to ignore Mutamid, who has looked in excellent nick recently.

1 Steal The Scene – Went very close on latest AW start, at Lingfield (7f) in January, but hasn’t really been firing on all cylinders on turf in recent months and posted no threat when midfield at Doncaster last month; needs to up his game.

2 Street Force – Won consecutive starts on Tapeta at Wolverhampton (8.6f/7f) in December and bettered that form when scoring by over 4l on Fibresand at Southwell (7f) in April, but finished down the field on last two outings and looks too high in the weights now; swaps cheekpieces for refitted blinkers.

3 Jammy Guest – Three AW wins this year, the latest off 3lb lower at Wolverhampton (7f) in March; form seems to have leveled off since then but he hasn’t really enjoyed favourable tactical scenarios on his last two Polytrack runs and presumably wasn’t suited by return to turf on latest outing; current mark not beyond him if others set a decent gallop.

4 Mutamid – Back from long absence with new career-best performance to make virtually all at Kempton (7f, AW) last month and probably bettered that performance when second at Newcastle (1m, AW) on latest outing; another 4lb higher today but evidently at the top of his game.

5 Fuwairt – Not an instant success for new stable this season but was placed three consecutive times over 7f on turf last month and also ran well when staying-on sixth at Doncaster (7f, good to firm) on Thursday; remains without a victory since summer 2014, though, and needs to find something extra to make winning AW debut.

6 Certified – Justified favouritism in 6f course maiden on debut in November and, following a break, maintained 100% strike-rate when clearcut winner of 7f Wolverhampton handicap a fortnight ago; 8lb higher in a stronger race here but has obvious potential to make further progress and commands respect.

7 Dollar Reward – Ended three-race 2yo campaign with 7f AW maiden win at Wolverhampton; slightly disappointing in turf handicaps on first two starts this season but last month’s clear second at Newmarket (7f, good to soft) was a good effort and he could easily have more to offer now back on an artificial surface.

8 Pushaq – Came good with narrow-margin maiden win at Wolverhampton (8.6f, AW) in March, his fourth start, but been very disappointing in two turf handicaps since then, more recently with cheekpieces added; might be happier back on the AW but a leap of faith required to support him; blinkers given a whirl today.

9 Foie Gras – Dug deep to win Class 6 event over 1m here in April and today’s shorter trip won’t be a problem but he was comfortably held at Newcastle when last in action and looks vulnerable off career-high mark in today’s company.

myracing Forecast Prices: 2/1 Certified, 3/1 Dollar Reward, 4/1 Mutamid, 12/1 Steal The Score, Jammy Guest, Fuwairt, 16/1 Street Force, Pushaq, Foie Gras

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