6.50pm Chelmsford Tips & Betting Preview 13/03/2017

This is a competitive Class 3 contest over a mile, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: The booking of Ryan Moore suggests a big run is expected from QAFFAAL and he can continue his excellent run of form here. He’s dropped back down to a more suitable trip and a mark of 88 still looks workable. Bold Prediction is certainly capable of getting involved in the finish whilst Horsted Keynes remains frustrating although a step up in trip back to a mile could bring out some improvement in him.

1 CHEVALLIER – Has been in good form over the winter with two wins and several placed efforts. He drops back into Class 3 company today having been very well beaten off this mark last time out and the handicapper may just be getting his grip on him now he’s 9lbs higher than the start of his winter campaign. He’s not completely without a chance with a drop in grade and his trainer is in good form (20% strike rate last 14 days) but others make more appeal in this.

2 HORSTED KEYNES – Has a career record of 4 wins from 25 starts and hasn’t managed to get his head in front since April 2014. He’s steadily dropped through the weights and has posted three placed efforts on his three most recent runs but the handicapper has nudged him back up to 91 because of those efforts which makes life tougher. He looked a shade short of pace at Lingfield last time out and the step back up in trip should suit this Giant’s Causeway gelding. Interesting in this, but vulnerable to a couple once again.

3 QUIXOTE(Non-Runner) Another horse to transfer to Mick Appleby from Tony Carroll’s stable and he’s in with a chance here. He was only beaten a length in a similar grade to this back in January and connections apply a tongue tie for the first time which may bring about a slight bit of improvement. The in-form Silvestre De Sousa is booked for the ride (22% strike rate last 14 days) and the yard are also in good form of late and he shouldn’t be far away now stepped up in trip to a mile.

4 LOYALTY – Hacked up over C&D two starts ago when winning a Class 4 handicap by 7 lengths. He took full advantage of a falling mark that day but the handicapper has been tough on this 10yo and raised him 8lbs to a mark of 90. To his credit, he ran well in a Class 2 event over a mile at Lingfield and this is a drop in grade but he’s now onto his 87th career start and improvement may not be so forthcoming. Entitled to get competitive but others make more appeal.

5 ICE ROYAL – Connections apply cheekpieces for the first time today to try and encourage a bit more improvement in this Frozen Power gelding. He’s been thereabouts since his seasonal return having been beaten no more than 1 1/2 lengths in four starts this year and the handicapper leaves him on the same mark of 88 today. He hasn’t won since July off 4lbs lower but Adam Kirby is a good booking (14% strike rate last 14 days) and he could be dangerous if the headgear sparks some improvement.

6 BOLD PREDICTION – Relatively exposed type racing off a near career high mark. Has run well in better contests than this since his return to action in December and he’s entitled plenty of respect now kept in Class 3 company over a mile off 1lb lower than his last start. He’s 3lbs better off with Chevallier for a 1 1/2 length defeat last time out and is also very closely matched with Horsted Keynes on his last run which entitles him to get competitive here.

7 QAFFAAL – Has been in flying form since switched to the All-Weather last autumn which has seen him record three wins, three seconds and a ninth place finish in 7 starts. He’s 21lbs higher than his first success but is clearly still on a workable mark now just 1lb higher than when just touched off over a possibly inconvenient trip last time out. He steps back down to a mile here and is kept to Class 3 company and the booking of Ryan Moore (32% strike rate here) is extremely eye catching. Very respected.

8 REGARDE MOI – Extremely successful career in Italy with over 20 wins to his name and has had just four starts for Marco Botti so far this year. He’s dropped 7lbs since he first ran under rules in the UK but he’s been competing in claimers and the quality of some of his form is rather questionable. A mark of 87 looks reasonable enough on his handicap debut but he may just appreciate a drop in grade and is best watched for a trainer slightly out of form of late.

9 TAKE THE HELM – Won by a tiny margin last time out to record his first win since December 2015. That was over 7 furlongs and he steps back up to a mile here which is questionable given all his wins have come over shorter to date. He can’t be ruled out here now only 2lbs higher but there’s a question mark regarding the trip and he didn’t suggest he had much to spare last time out and may be best watched here.

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