6.45pm Yarmouth Tips & Betting Preview 09/08/2017

With nothing to go on historically we are a little in the dark statistically, but there are some very interesting runners in this handicap for horses rated 66-80 and an open looking market. Read on for our horse by horse race preview and selection for the 6.45pm at Yarmouth this evening.

IN SUMMARY: DISCREET HERO perhaps boasts some of the strongest form in this now depleted field and can get the better of market rival Exceed The Limit. Simon Crisford’s four-year-old gelding ran an eye-catching race when third at Bath last month after almost a year off the track and will certainly be better for that outing. The yard are also in decent form at present, with a 24% strike rate in the last fortnight including an 80/1 winner earlier this week with Lawless Secret at Windsor.

1 EXCEED THE LIMIT – Trainer Robert Cowell is quite the sprint specialist and his four-year-old son of Exceed And Excel has won two of his 17 starts, but none since leaving France for his Newmarket yard. Last time out he finished eighth of 13 to Jack Dexter in a Class 2 at Ayr but drops two classes now off a rating three pounds lower. Jamie Spencer is booked to ride so he now has a pretty serious chance on that form.

2 DISCREET HERO – Just the one run so far this season for Simon Crisford’s son of Siyouni with a third to Union Rose on his first run since a gelding operation. Sure to strip fitter for his first run in ten months, he will need to improve to take a hand here, but that seems more than likely. If he can repeat his York win from El Astronaute last season off just four pounds higher he seems sure to get involved in the finish. The stable are in great form with four winners from 17 runners in the last two weeks (24%) and close to 74 points of level stakes profit and he takes his place high up in the pre-race shortlist.

3 ARZAAK – Plenty of decent form recently with a win, two seconds and a fourth in his last four starts and a neck second to Open Wide at Bath last time out. He has to run off a pound higher mark this evening for trainer Chris Dwyer who is another handler here in good form with two wins from just the seven recent runners for a 29% strike rate. He will need a career best here having never won off higher than 82, but at the age of three may still have more to offer with Saleem Golam in the saddle.

4 LYDIA’S PLACE – Clifford Lee takes a useful three pounds off the back of Richard Guest’s four-year-old filly who has won five of her 20 starts, the latest being a win at Redcar under the same jockey in May. However, she was a below par seventh of eight at Doncaster last time out, nine lengths behind the winner and weakening close home. Dropped a pound for that but looked as if she may need a break and others appeal that little bit more for the moment.

5 OLIVIA FALLOW (non runner) – Three wins from 28 starts for Paul Midgley’s five-year-old mare, but none this season or in a run of 17 starts now. Although an acceptable sixth at Ayr in the Listed Land O’Burns Stakes in late June, she hasn’t made the most of a drop to this class in her last two starts, with a four length fourth at Carlisle and an eight-and-a-quarter length fourth to Glenrowan Rose at Catterick and off a handicap mark just two pounds lower. She looks to have her work cut out this evening.

6 JUST US TWO – The second Robert Cowell sprinter here and a winner last time out at Doncaster when all out to beat You’re Cool a nose over this trip last month. Upped two pounds for that and upped in class as well, he is clearly in form. He has won twice off higher marks leaving him with every chance on his best form, assuming that he has fully recovered from what looked like a pretty hard race. 

7 MADAME BOUNTY (non runner) – Ed Walker’s Bahamian Bounty filly started this season with a bang thanks to wins at Windsor and Newbury, the first a Class 5 maiden and the second a Class 5 handicap when she beat Our Lord by a comfortable length off a rating of 72. Stepped up to a six furlong at Kempton on the All Weather, she faded into seventh close to five lengths off the winner off the same mark, but may well be a lot happier back at the minimum trip tonight. She has to race off of five pounds higher tonight which would hurt her chances, but jockey Jenny Powell claims that amount straight back. On her best form she won’t be far away again and arrives with every chance. 

8 KIBAAR (non runner) – A first time visor for the outsider in this small field may help the five-year-old to focus, but he has been out of sorts for some time now and they will need to have a serious effect. His last six runs have seen him beaten eight lengths, 11 lengths, eight lengths, 13 lengths, six-and-a-half lengths and, most recently, 15 lengths at York. Despite being dropped four pounds, that is nowhere near enough to make him remotely competitive if he continues in that sort of form.