6.15pm Chelmsford Tips & Betting Preview 04/05/16

IN SUMMARY: SUPERSTA (4/1) was unable to land a significant blow on soft turf at Newmarket three weeks ago but has made excellent progress on the AW since the October, winning three times over C&D and twice at Wolverhampton along the way. In that time he’s been raised a total of 33lb, but he was arguably unlucky not to land a valuable prize off a mark just 3lb lower than today’s at Wolverhampton in March and could still be improving. Unforgiving Minute doesn’t aid his cause by taking a keen hold in the early stages but has run with credit on two of his three starts for Gary Moore and is second choice. Truth Or Dare has became quite a difficult horse to win with but his defeat in a Listed contest last time shouldn’t be view harshly and he’d been in good form beforehand.

1 Supersta – Three of his five wins since the autumn have been gained over C&D and he didn’t get the best of runs when going very close in a valuable event at Wolverhampton (8.6f) in March; presumably wasn’t suited by soft turf when midfield at Newmarket last month and can resume his progress now back on Polytrack; leading contender.

2 Truth Or Dare – Can be excused his defeat in Listed company on latest outing in March and reached the frame in Polytrack handicaps three consecutive times beforehand; can give another good account here but is not an easy horse to win with and latest 2lb nudge up the weights reduces his margin for error.

3 Unforgiving Minute – Placed on two of his three starts since joining Gary Moore in February, more recently when third at Lingfield (1m, AW) a fortnight ago; untested at this track and can sometimes harm his chance by refusing to settle but no surprise of he’s on the premises again.

4 Burn The Boats – Below best form during light campaign in Ireland in 2015; made satisfactory seasonal/stable debut when seventh at Kempton (7f) last month and is on a workable mark if able to build on that performance but some of the others have more pressing claims.

5 Charlie Bear – Won twice over 7f at Dundalk in early 2015 but wasn’t seen again until finishing last of six in Lingfield handicap over that trip for new stable last month; was only beaten about 3l that day and looks worth another crack at 1m, but needs to come on for the run.

6 Pastoral Player – Ended lengthy losing streak at Glorious Goodwood (7f, good) last summer; stays 1m but finished down the field on sole previous AW start (in October 2013) and returns from 204-day absence on fairly tough mark; probably best watched today.

7 Elis Eliz – Has reached the frame on four of her five visits to Chelmsford and returns here after finishing third off today’s mark on consecutive 7f starts at Kempton/Wolverhampton in March; often makes the running; has stamina to prove on first attempt at 1m.

8 Craftsmanship – Returned from break with clearcut success in Class 4 event over C&D in March and remains lightly raced on this surface but has been treated very sternly by the handicapper and struggled on both turf starts last month (albeit on softish ground); may remain vulnerable in Class 2 company.

9 Jodies Jem – Has gained all four of his wins on the AW, the latest at Kempton (1m) last month; also suited by this C&D and evidently in good heart but 3lb rise in the weights probably enough to make things tough for him in this higher-grade event.

10 Storm King – Absent since midfield finish on soft ground at York in 2014 and this will be his first AW run since September 2013; well handicapped on old form but entitled to benefit from this outing.

myracing Forecast Prices: 5/2 Supersta, 9/2 Truth Or Dare, 5/1 Unforgiving Glance, 8/1 Elis Eliz, Jodies Jem, 10/1 Charlie Bear, 12/1 Burn The Boats, 14/1 Craftsmanship, 16/1 Pastoral Player, 25/1 Storm King

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