5.45pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 12/09/2016

Our race preview takes a look at a muddling Class 5 handicap on Kempton’s All Weather surface. See our betting tips below where we way up the pro’s and con’s of all the horses in the race and discover a filly who has disappointed this year, but could run well at bigger odds tonight.

IN SUMMARY: The claims for Don’t Blame Me are obvious, beating a subsequent winner last time out over C&D. He may be hard to beat with further progress, but a chance is taken on SERRADURA to bounce back to form. She won on debut at Newbury on turf and hasn’t really gone on from that since. She has shown signs of ability this year, and although she finished last over 6f on the All Weather at Lingfield in April, that was a good run against some horses who have gone on to better things. She drops down to 6f again for the first time since that run and will have a chance if managing to run to that level after a break.

1 KINGLAMI – A close third here 10 days ago (6f, St/Slow) when not managing to quicken towards the finish. That was a good effort on his first run on the AW since last November and he still remains very well treated on his best form. If managing to build on that latest run he can surely mount a strong challenge.

2 FOR AYMAN – Won over C&D here last month before just falling short when going for a double over the same C&D 10 days ago. Clearly in good form and Sean Mooney’s 7lb claim will be a huge help, so he can’t be discounted in this vein of form.

3 DON’T BLAME ME – Made all gamely when winning over C&D a few weeks ago and that form has been franked by the runner up. The familiar Cox and Kirby combination team up and although Kirby is going through a dry patch of present (0 from 36 in the last 2 weeks) he will have a good chance of notching one up tonight. His pedigree reads well and with further progress he should run well and needs to be respected.

4 DONT HAVE IT THEN – Seems well treated on some old form but has been very poor this year, with his latest 7th of 11 over C&D leaving a lot to be desired. His efforts on the All Weather back in 2014/15 read well but he can’t be backed with any sort of confidence with his latest two dismal displays.

5 SERRADURA – Won well on her debut at Newbury last year (6f, Good) but hasn’t really lived up to her potential since. Her reappearance this year at Lingfield although reading poorly when 6th of 6 (6f, AW), was actually a good effort when considered as she kept tabs with some horses who have gone on to better things. Her two efforts since haven’t been inspiring, but they were over 7f and 8f and she now drops back down to what appears to be her best trip. She was bought for the grand price of 100,000 euros and she must surely be capable of better, so she is chanced tonight.

6 FIRESNAKE – The only maiden who lines up in today’s field and will have to build on an okay effort at Thirsk (7f, Soft) to have any chance of getting invovled today. Although running well on his only other visit to Kempton back last August (7f, St/Slow), I’m not convinced this is his preferred trip. He may well need 7f/8f to really show his full potential based on previous runs and with his current form isn’t really good enough, so he’s passed over today.

7 HONCHO – Last win came a year ago and you can’t say he hasn’t had enough time, as he’s been possibly over raced this year in a busy campaign for John Ryan. Currently 0-6 on this surface and not really shown much in those runs either. His current form isn’t exactly inspiring and can’t be trusted to run well, a risk not worth considering.

myracing Forecast Prices: 11/10 Don’t Blame Me, 3/1 For Ayman, 5/1 Kinglami, 8/1 Honcho, 8/1 Dont Have It Then, 9/1 Firesnake, 10/1 Serradura

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