5.35pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 21/03/2017

This is a low grade affair to end the day at Southwell, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: You don’t want to be taking a short price about anything in this and PANTHER IN THE PINK could provide some decent value. She has shown a moderate level of ability which is more than can be said for many of these and the step up to a mile looks as if it’ll really suit. Topmeup has an obvious chance given her recent effort as does the David O’Meara trained State Residence who looks just the type to win a race of this nature soon.

1 BONNIE ARLENE – Nicely-bred filly for Mark Johnston and she came close to opening her account at the ninth time of asking last time out. She was well-supported that day having been sent off the 3/1 favourite and she’s had a break since then and returns to action today off a 161-layoff. She’s been raised 2lbs but her rider claims 7lbs and that puts her on a dangerous mark in this. She’s worthy of respect but this is her fibresand debut and tricky to know how well she’ll handle it. She’s respected nonetheless.

2 STATE RESIDENCE – Lightly-raced Arcano colt and has already run four times this year. He’s progressing with each start and he ran into a nice type on his last start and should find life slightly easier here now kept at a mile. He finished fourth over C&D at the end of January in tougher company and he looks very capable of putting up a really good performance here. His trainer has sent out a winner in the last fortnight and he should be thereabouts if he can progress again.

3 GREYJOY – Doesn’t seem to be progressing having raced four times since December and has been dropped 4lbs following his disappointing run last time out. He’s started at double figure odds on every start to date and he should continue that record here without many positives to his name. He should enjoy this trip given his sire is Mastercraftsmen and he may enjoy the stiffer test Southwell will provide so he’s no forlorn hope. Others make more appeal though.

4 TOPMEUP – 8 runs without victory but has rattled the crossbar on her last couple of starts with two placed efforts including over C&D on her seasonal return last time out. The handicapper has left her on the same mark and she receives the help of the very useful Katherine Glenister here (1 win from her last 3 rides). She’s by Mayson so this trip is probably at the very edge of her comfort zone in terms of trip but she looks on a workable mark and should come on for that last run. Dangerous here.

5 FLAWED DIAMOND – Steps up to a mile for the first time today having been beaten over 6 and 7 furlongs to date. She returns from a 202-day absence and she doesn’t look overly well-treated given she failed to be competitive off just 2lbs higher on the turf last season. She makes her fibresand debut here and does have the assistance of the useful Clifford Lee but that means she’s without a claim from her rider and her best form has come over shorter so she’s avoided here.

6 OUR LOIS – Bushranger’s progeny have a poor record at Southwell so it’s a surprise to see Keith Dalgleish’s runner return here having been beaten out of sight just two runs ago over C&D. She’s dropped 5lbs for her last run and that puts her off a mark of 50 which probably isn’t too far off what she should be winning off but today’s surface is a massive concern although the step back down in trip to a mile should be more in her favour. Best watched in this with the visor kept on.

7 CHAMASAY – 6 runs without a single placed effort and was beaten 12 lengths on her last run over today’s C&D. Handicapper has dropped her another 4lbs to a mark of 47 but she has looked really poor so far having been beaten by double figure distances on each run of her career starts. Hard to envisage a return to form here for a trainer with a decent 16% strike at Southwell and she’s best watched again.

8 ROCKALATER – Had shown some promise when finishing fourth of 12 at Lingfield two runs ago off 48 but has failed to build on that. She is dropped another pound for her run last time out in Class 6 company and this looks only slightly weaker so it would be a surprise to see her win here. The step up in trip should suit (By Delegator) but her profile suggests she needs to be dropped to 45 and kept in Class 7 company. Avoided today.

9 PANTHER IN PINK – Zebedee filly who has run with some respect in her last couple of runs and she’s dropped another 3lbs in the handicap for those efforts. She was only beaten 4 1/4 lengths by African Grey at Newcastle las time out and the step back up to a mile may suit her based on her dams pedigree. She’s definitely got more going for her than most in this and she gets the assistance of the very capable Callum Shepperd (18% strike rate around here). Respected.

10 RED SHANGHAI – Hard to be polite about this Tamayuz filly given she has been thrashed in nearly all of her starts. She was stepped up to a mile last time out but that brought out no improvement and she was beaten by a sizeable 17 lengths. Connections are doing the right thing stepping her up in trip but on form she looks to have absolutely no hope of victory today. She needs a much weaker race than this to get off the mark.

11 RIVER WARRIOR – Handicap debut today and easy to understand why the handicapper has given this Majestic Warrior colt a rating of 45. He’s been beaten 22, 23 and 39 lengths on his three career starts respectively and has shown virtually nothing to suggest a change in form today. Connections have applied blinkers for the first time and he’s partnered by Connor Murtagh who claims 7lbs and won on his first ever ride at Newcastle recently. Richard Fahey doesn’t keep many horses rated this low and he may soon be on his way out of the yard if he doesn’t improve for the switch to fibresand in this.

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