5.00pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 21/03/2017

This is a competitive handicap at Southwell, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Ruth Carr’s MESHARDAL is worth sticking with now onto his second run of this year. He showed he was well-treated on his last run and the handicapper has dropped him another pound and this fibresand winner can go in again around here. Crosse Fire is an obvious danger given he still looks well-handicapped whilst African Blessing would be feared if strong market support arrived.

1 BRING ON A SPINNER – Dual C&D winner and has recorded all four of his career wins on the fibresand at Southwell. He was well beaten last time out when finishing behind Crosse Fire so he has to prove he’s still on a workable mark now left on 77 by the handicapper and there may be one or two better weighted rivals in this. He’s got the customary headgear on again today (blinkers & eye shield) and he should run well again. Respected.

2 RED TOUCH – Dropped down to 6 furlongs for the first time today for a yard in good form (6 winners from last 34 runners). He was tried in a hood last time out but that didn’t have the desired effect although it’s kept on again today and he does drop down 2lbs in the weights to leave him just 2lbs higher than his last winning mark. Alistair Rawlinson claims 3lbs again and he’s not without a chance but it remains to be seen if he will have the pace for this and is best watched on the back of that.

3 CROSSE FIRE – One of the most frustrating horses on the sand at Southwell, he finally went in on his last start winning by a comfortable 2 and a quarter lengths. He was obviously well handicapped and has been for some time but he’s kept on blowing his chance at the starting gates which has made him tricky to gauge. He runs here under a penalty and looks as if he is still well-treated although he must break well again and he’s short enough in the betting. Dangerous if he can break well again today.

4 AFRICAN BLESSING – Interesting runner in this returning from a 213-day break. He won over C&D on debut and looked to have some promise but he couldn’t follow up that effort switched onto the turf. He’s been missing since last August and may have had one or two issues but the return here looks positive and this trainer can definitely ready one off a break. He should be capable off this mark and he’s one to watch in the betting. Support would be very significant.

5 DARK PROFIT – Ran a great race off a seasonal break last time out when just outgunned by a subsequent winner. The handicapper has nudged him up 2lbs in the weights but that shouldn’t pose too much of an issue given he gets his riders 5lb claim again here and he looks relatively well-treated at the weights. He’s been given a horror draw in stall 10 and his trainer is without a winner in his last 24 runners so those would be two concerns here. However, he’s well-respected and should give a good account again.

6 COISTE BODHAR – Has winning form here including over this distance and he’s been doing most of his racing over the minimum trip of late. He likes to race prominently and he’s likely to be contested for the lead in this so he’s hard to recommend now dropped just 2lbs for his last run. His last win was at Nottingham off 4lbs lower in October of last year and is best watched again.

7 EBONY N IVORY – Had absolutely no chance of winning last time out having been ridden far too aggressively. He looks on a workable mark off 68 but things aren’t falling right for him and there is a major question mark now he arrives at Southwell given his sires progeny have a horrific record here. Oisin Murphy is a positive booking (3 wins from last 34 rides) but today’s conditions are a major question mark and he’s probably best watched although he will pop up in this grade at some point in the near future.

8 BIG AMIGO – Completed a C&D double in January this year and has found life tougher since being raised in the handicap. He was well beaten in a claimer on his last run at Wolverhampton and that was disappointing given he was beaten nearly 4 lengths. Connections switch him back to handicap company today and stall 7 makes life tougher for a horse that doesn’t look to be in the greatest vein of form and he could be worth opposing again today. Silvestre De Sousa is an obvious positive but he was aboard last time as well and that tempers enthusiasm of a revival in form from his mount.

9 MESHARDAL – Returned to action off a seasonal break at Newcastle and ran with credit having just been edged out of it by 2 lengths. That showed him to be on a workable mark and the handicapper has dropped him another pound which makes him attractive today off this mark having once been rated in the 90’s. He should improve for that return to action and he’s won on fibresand previously which is an obvious plus. Trainer doesn’t have a great record here (10 wins from 102 runners) although her runner deserves maximum respect in this.

10 BARON RUN – 5 wins from 26 career starts but the last of those came back in September 2014 and he’s been very lightly-raced since (wasn’t seen in 2016). He has been well beaten since his return to action this winter including over C&D and he’s hard to recommend on form. He would be well handicapped on old form but he doesn’t look anywhere near his old self and is best avoided here.

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