4.55pm Newton Abbot Tips & Betting Preview 17/07/2016

Our betting tips identify some good each-way value in the marathon handicap hurdle on Sunday’s Newton Abbot card. Read the full race preview to get the lowdown.

IN SUMMARY: Peterbrown reverts to hurdling on a workable mark after winning handicap chases on his first two starts for Philip Hobbs and is a afforded plenty of respect but there is some good each-way value to be had with EXEMPLARY at around 10/1. Johnny Farrelly’s 9yo ran better than a 29l defeat might suggest over fences on his latest outing and looks very fairly treated off a mark just 3lb higher than when scoring over hurdles at Uttoxeter two starts ago. Furthermore, he’ll be suited by today’s fast ground and there is hope the marathon trip might unlock some improvement. Nothing else makes huge appeal but Horsted Valley will be a tough nut to crack if a change of headgear triggers a revival and it will be interesting to see whether today’s significant step up in trip suits Welcometothejungle.

1 Welcometothejungle – Absent since a moderate run in September but won two of her first three starts for Harry Fry last summer (both over 2m4f) and is not yet fully exposed; not certain to be suited by today’s significant step up in trip but goes well on fast ground and enters calculations.

2 Decimus – Won off today’s mark over C&D (good to soft) last summer but has looked out of sorts this year, most recently when tailed off in first-time blinkers back here a couple of weeks ago; dropped in class today but needs to get career back on track.

3 Quinto – Opened account over hurdles for John Quinn in novice company at Catterick (3m1f, soft) in January but was unable to make any further progress for that yard in handicaps; makes debut for new stable today; might still be a shade too high in the weights.

4 Romany Ryme – Well beaten in all four points this year and was pulled up in a 2m5f handicap chase when back under rules for new stable here in May; effective on fast ground and was a winner over hurdles last summer but has too much to prove at present.

5 Kentford Myth – Bounced back to form to gain clearcut win at Worcester (2m4f, good to soft) last month; reportedly benefited from the drop in trip that day, so it’s curious to see her declared over 3m2f here; even if her stamina holds out, she needs to produce a new career-best performance to overcome current mark.

6 Horsted Valley – Suggested he was back in form when keeping on for second at Doncaster (3m, good to soft) in January but has been beaten out of sight on both subsequent outings; well handicapped if change of headgear helps him bounce back again but it’s hard to predict whether he’ll warm to the task.

7 Peterbrown – Former pointer who is 2-2 in handicap chases since joining Philip Hobbs this season; seemed to have a bit left in the tank when beating a big field at Worcester (2m7f, good) a fortnight ago and could easily have a lot more to offer now back over hurdles.

8 Exemplary – Well beaten in the end when fourth in a Cartmel chase last time but won quite cosily over hurdles two starts ago, at Uttoxeter (2m7f, good to soft), and a 3lb for that seems quite lenient; not yet fully exposed over staying trips and will be suited by today’s fast ground; one to consider.

9 Dun Scaith – Left two poor performances behind when comfortable winner of selling handicap here (2m5f, good to firm) a couple of weeks ago; evidently in good heart but still has a very modest strike-rate (2-34) and now needs to prove he can cope with a 9lb rise against stronger opposition; yet to race beyond 3m.

10 Archie Rice – Won two points this spring and returned to racing under rules with respectable effort when fourth to Dun Scaith in 2m5f selling handicap here this month; shaped as though worth a crack at today’s longer trip but will need to better that performance by some way to win this.

myracing Forecast Prices: 9/4 Peterbrown, 6/1 Welcometothejungle, 7/1 Quinto, Kentford Myth, Exemplary, 8/1 Horsted Valley, Dun Scaith, 10/1 Archie Rice, 16/1 Decimus, 25/1 Romany Ryme

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