4.50pm Doncaster Tips & Betting Preview 13/09/2017

With £19,000 in guaranteed total prize money and £11,828 for the winner, a small but select field are set to line up at Doncaster over the mile and a quarter, with all five declared rated well over a hundred.

IN SUMMARY: RED VERDON looked a bit unlucky at Ascot last time out when badly hampered before running out of stamina over the mile and a half. He can, however, be ridden much closer to the pace dropped back to this trip by trainer Ed Dunlop, and is expected to reverse form with Mount Logan this afternoon with Champion jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle.

1 MOUNT LOGAN – Formerly trained by Luca Cumani where he won four races as a decent handicapper, he was then moved to Roger Varian in January 2016 and has added another two wins, with the Listed Tapster Stakes at Goodwood the highlight. His record here at Doncaster is outstanding, with two wins from three starts and he has won on Good to Soft over course and distance which is another positive. However he may find this a little softer than ideal. Last time out he finished second to Midterm at Epsom and the winner failed to frank that form when last of six at Kempton last Saturday. As he has to give weight away to the three-year-olds here, he may find himself up against it.

2 RED VERDON – On official ratings he has a few pounds to find to get involved, but Ed Dunlop’s son of Lemon Drop Kid ran well enough last time out when fourth to Lord Yeats over the mile and a half at Ascot in the Listed Fred Archer Stakes – one place behind Mount Logan – after being hampered and appearing to run out of stamina. He may improve over this shorter trip granted a clear run, which seems likely in this small field, but he hasn’t won since May 2016 or at this distance. He may well be able to reverse that form under jockey Jim Crowley this afternoon.

3 SUMBAL – David Simcock’s runner is the joint lowest rated in this race off 106 and has not been seen on the track since finishing fourth to Duretto at Newbury in the Group 3 St Simon Stakes in October last year. That was only his second run for his new handler after arriving from Francis-Henri Graffard in France and he may well have a bit more to come as his trainer accustoms to his ways and the most suitable training methods. However, to expect him to win this after almost 11 months off looks like a big ask, with the softer surface likely to test his race fitness to the limit.

5 MIRAGE DANCER – Sir Michael Stoute still has his horses in good form, with a 21% strike rate in the last two weeks, and the son of Frankel is top rated here off a mark of 111. Ryan Moore rides which is never a bad thing, and the three-year-old has won once from his four career starts, first-time out here at Doncaster over seven furlongs on his only run as a juvenile. Yet to win in three starts this season, he has finished fourth in the Dee Stakes at Chester (over this trip), third to Benbati at Royal Ascot in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes and, more recently, a 12 length fourth to Cracksman over a mile and a half in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York when outclassed and, perhaps, outstayed. He is dropped in class here for this valuable event and gets weight for age from his elders. He looks to have a good chance of his second victory here if he retains the early pace needed over this trip.

Non-Runners

4 BEST OF DAYS – Trained by Hugo Palmer for Godolphin and to be ridden by James Doyle, the three-year-old son of Azamour looked close to top class as a juvenile with wins at Sandown and Newmarket, the latter in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. Put away over the winter ahead of his classic season, things haven’t exactly gone according to plan and he hasn’t won yet after three runs this season. After missing all of the early Classics, he reappeared at Royal Ascot in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes when a nine length tenth of twelve. He has been dropped back to this trip in two races since, with a third at Newbury in Listed class and a fourth to Fabricate at Windsor in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes when slowly away before running on through beaten horses. On his juvenile form he has a solid chance, but he needs to recapture that and so far there is no real evidence he has trained on this season.