4.45pm Newbury Tips & Betting Preview 22/07/2017

A disappointingly small field of just six runners chasing more than £18,500 in this mile handicap for fillies and mares. Read on for our runner by runner preview and expert tip.

IN SUMMARY: A tasty contest in prospect, Lincoln Rocks has a solid chance on her improved form this season, including when winning a Listed race last time. She shows her best when getting an easy lead, so it will be interesting to see if any other jockeys wish to take her on. Sante has been placed on both this season and with Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle, she has a solid chance. PAVILLION didn’t have the race run to suit on her turf debut last time, she still ran a race full of promise and is unexposed enough to improve past them.

1 LINCOLN ROCKS – Has been in excellent form in 2017, landing a valuable handicap at Musselburgh before stepping up on that again to claim a Listed prize at Pontefract last time out. She very much had the run of the race on the latter occasion, given a soft lead, she was ridden to perfection by Danny Tudhope, claiming the stands rail on the softened ground. A two pound rise for that is more than fair and in a small field, she is the only natural front runner, so would be dangerous if getting a soft time of things on the front end again.

2 ZEST – Disappointed twice since producing a clear career best first time up this season on the all weather. They were deeper contests that she was below par in so she can be excused them, with a break since interesting given how well she went fresh at Kempton. She is five pounds above her last handicap run when she disappointed, but she has improved in the meantime and if the first time visor sharpens her up, she can get involved.

3 SANTE – Much improved since a confidence boosting maiden win last autumn, with a pair of runner up efforts this season. Those were both in inferior races to this, but she has stepped forward a little each time. Her mark is creeping up as a consequence but she has the benefit of Ryan Moore in the saddle for the first time today.

4 SOUL SILVER – Didn’t look to stay on her first go over this trip when behind Pavillion at Sandown. A mark of 88 looks fair on her first go at handicap level, but she has rather plateaued in terms of improvement despite only being lightly raced. This is easier than Listed company the last twice, but she doesn’t appeal as a likely winner.

5 PAVILLION – Never got much of a run at the leaders at Sandown on her first go on turf, trapped on the inside, lit up when surrounded by horses. That was on quick ground, the ground here should allow her to get her toe in a little more, which being by Showcasing, is going to be in her favour. She should come on plenty for that first turf experience and looks the one to beat in this field.

6 TRILLIANT – Made an impressive start to the handicap ranks when a comfortable winner at Haydock earlier in the month. That was only a Class 5 event, but the level of superiority she showed over her rivals that day suggests she is capable of better. Her dam is a half sister to a Group 1 winner so she has the pedigree to be better than this level in due course.

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