4.45pm Goodwood Tips & Betting Preview 01/08/2017

An intriguing sprint handicap with plenty of runners though sadly not enough for a place one to four as we would all have hoped in advance. Boom The Groom won this last year and is back to look for a repeat, while a low draw is generally seen as very slightly favoured, though nothing can be guaranteed in these handicap sprints. Read on for our full analysis and race preview ahead of the 4.45pm at Goodwood this afternoon.

IN SUMMARY: Another tough to call renewal of this competitive sprint handicap but Robert Cowell is an expert with the speedsters and will have GREEN DOOR (Each Way) primed for his second run of the season. He has run well in the past off far higher marks and looks good value in the circumstances with the veteran Confessional taken to chase him home.

1 LINE OF REASON – Well enough drawn in the seven stall and already the winner of two races this season at Musselburgh on Good to Firm going at at Newcastle on the all-weather. Last time out he finished a well beaten seventh of ten behind Battaash at Sandown in the Group Three Sprint Stakes but he is yet to produce his very best form on going with cut in it (all his ten wins have been on good or faster other than the all-weather), and top weight could well halt his charge today.

2 BOOM THE GROOM – Won this last season for trainer Tony Carroll with Adam Kirby riding and the partnership is renewed again this afternoon. After last year’s success he followed up off a four pound higher mark at York but hasn’t won again since in eight races. A mark of 107 seemed beyond him though he did run well to be beaten three quarters of a length in the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes at Lingfield in February and is hard to write off. Dropped two pounds after a well-beaten twenty-first of twenty-seven at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham Stakes weakening rapidly over the six furlongs, he will need a career best today but is back at his favoured trip.

3 POYLE VINNIE – Not getting any younger at the age of seven but he has won seven of his forty-eight starts and placed in another fifteen contests, and doesn’t mind a bit of cut in the ground which he seems likely to run in to here. He will need a career best to win off his current mark while trainer Michael Appleby is on the cold list with zero winners from thirty-nine runners in the last two weeks making him hard to make a case for.

4 HARRY HURRICANE – Equally effective at this trip or further his four career wins have been equally split between this five furlongs and seven furlongs, with no wins over six. Last time out he finished a four and a half length seventh to Danzeno at Ascot in the heritage handicap after being slightly impaired, and that seems acceptable form. He does have to carry three pounds more today than his highest ever winning mark so will need a best ever effort, and once again his stable are out of sorts with George Baker having eight unsuccessful runners in the last two weeks.

5 GREEN DOOR – An interesting contender for trainer Robert Cowell who is well known for his expertise with the sprinters. Just the one run this season saw the six-year-old finish eleventh at Ascot, beaten six and three quarter lengths by Danzeno and finishing behind Harry Hurricane in the process. That was his first run since winning at Newmarket in June 2016 so it seems fair to assume he will strip a lot fitter here, and off a mark of 98 he looks well handicapped when you consider he has placed in decent races off ratings in the 100’s and with Jamie Spencer booked a good run looks assured from his single figure draw.

6 VIBRANT CHORDS – One of the in-form options for trainer Henry Candy after a course and distance win in early May and a length second back here last time out at the end of the same month. Put up another two pounds for that run he may be in the grip of the handicapper now at the age of four he may have more to offer over the months and even years ahead, though once again he comes from an out of form stable who have had fourteen runners without a winner in the last fourteen days.

7 ATLETICO – Seems likely to go off favourite here for trainer Roger Varian after winning by a length and a quarter last time out at Windsor in a Class Three over this trip. He runs today carrying a six pound penalty for that victory as the handicapper has not had the time to reassess him but may not even go up that much and will need to improve again to get involved here. He is only a five-year-old and missed the whole of last season after a gelding operation so does have room to offer more, but looks poor value at the prices even if his trainer tops the percentages in this race with a 27% strike rate.

8 A MOMENTOFMADNESS – Trained in Lambourn by Charlie Hills the son of Elnadim has won five of his seventeen starts so far at Lingfield, Windsor, Salisbury, and Kempton (twice). He likes to make the running and was a three quarter length third at Newmarket last time out, weakening close home over this trip, and with the softer ground unlikely to play to his strengths, others appeal a lot more here.

9 LOVE ON THE ROCKS – The second of the Charlie Hills pairing entered here and a winner last time out in a Class Three handicap at Windsor when beating Spring Loaded by a length despite pulling too hard early in the contest. She has been put up four pounds for that which will not help her chances but will get a truly run race which will suit her running style and she could well run better than her price implies.

10 EL ASTRONAUTE – Started well this season with wins at Haydock and Newmarket, one each on soft and good to firm going, but was put up four pounds for a neck win and has struggled in three starts since. Finished fourteen and a half lengths behind Danzeno at Ascot with no obvious excuses and looks out of sorts at present with his ability to handle softer going the one thing in his favour here for the John Quinn yard who have just the one winner from their last thirty runners.

11 DARK SHOT – Third on his only run here so far and he has also run well at Epsom so clearly likes this type of switchback track. Hasn’t won in six races stretching back to September 2016, but has run well on numerous occasions in defeat with a three lengths fourth at Windsor in a lesser race last time out. Left on the same rating here for trainer Andrew Balding who is showing a decent level stakes profit of over 23 points in the last two weeks and clearly has each way possibilities at a big price.

12 UNION ROSE – One win from seven starts this season at Bath on rock hard ground and seems unlikely to get anything like those conditions here. The son of Stimulation has a soft ground win to his name off a rating of 89 at York in 2015, and he runs off exactly the same mark this afternoon, and with the Ron Harris yard ticking over nicely for a smaller stable with two wins from their last fifteen runners, he could surprise a few here.

13 KASBAH – Four wins and eight places from his twenty-eight starts now and trained by Amada Perrett just down the road from Goodwood. Finished a very good second to Fethiye Boy at Sandown last time out beaten a head in a photo finish, he runs off a pound higher now, and with his stable in good form (two wins from five runners for a 40% strike rate in the last two weeks), he won’t be far away granted a clear run from the thirteen stall.

14 CONFESSIONAL – Ran on well to win the Chalice handicap at Chester last time out over this trip and runs with a six pounds penalty here. He looked to have plenty up his sleeve if needed that day and has won off far higher ratings in his past. Likes it here with his seven runs yielding a win two seconds, a fourth and a close up sixth in this race last season, and with Tim Easterby on a 24% strike rate with fifteen winners from his last sixty-three runners and a 52 point level stakes profit he seems to have an each way chance this afternoon from the favoured number one stall.

15 PETTOCHSIDE – Bottom weight of eight stone two for John Bridger’s eight-year-old who has the added bonus of Hollie Doyle taking three pounds off his back. Consistent most of the season with one win and five places in his last six starts, he finished a length and a half second to Jack Dexter at Ascot on Friday and if fully recovered from that he will try his best here off just a pound higher.

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