4.45pm Ayr Tips & Betting Preview 14/08/2017

A field of ten go to post for the seventh race of the day at Ayr on Monday. See our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Weekend Offender was second over course and distance two weeks ago, but he’s now on to a career high mark and preference is for MUTAMADED. He was a winner in France for Jean-Claude Rouget and he was set a very tough task on British debut by Brian Meehan in a Listed race at Haydock over an inadequate trip. He was subsequently bought by Ruth Carr and an opening handicap mark of 90 looks very lenient now that he is upped to a trip he can do some damage over.

1 WEEKEND OFFENDER – Four-year-old for Kevin Ryan who produced a career best on his latest start to finish second over course and distance, raised three pounds as a result. That takes him to a career high mark which makes this very tough from joint top weight, with this a more competitive race than what he faced last time. Tom Eaves takes the ride again which is positive, but his overall record suggests that he’ll find at least one too good.

2 KENTUCKYCONNECTION – Highly tried sort for Bryan Smart who was a good second at Newcastle on only his third handicap start, with his mark being unchanged. He drops in class for this which is another plus and the in form Graham Lee takes the ride, which boosts his chances. Conditions will suit and he’s one to consider as he still remains unexposed in this sphere.

3 MUTAMADED – Winner in France for Jean-Claude Rouget who made his stable debut for Brian Meehan in May at Haydock in a Listed race, set a very tough task over an inadequate trip. He makes his handicap/stable debut today off a mark of 90 for Ruth Carr which looks very lenient now that he’s upped to the 1m 2f trip which is more in keeping with his 1m 1f victory in France. The Ruth Carr and James Sullivan combination continue in blistering form and he should take all the beating with conditions to suit.

4 CORTON LAD – Course and distance winner who struck twice in the space of two days back in May, but he’s struggled since in the main. He was last seen at Ripon where he weakened tamely when asked for an effort three furlongs from home. This race isn’t much easier and the handicapper has only relented a pound, with this trip also looking inadequate.

5 DESERT WAY – Got off the mark for the Rebecca Menzies yard when winning at Doncaster on her latest start, keeping on strongly to win going away by three lengths. She’s been raised six pounds as a result and she now goes up in class, so more is required from her. That said, she is clearly on the up and further improvement would be no surprise, with P J McDonald retaining the ride. Hard to rule out and looks a big danger.

6 ROYAL REGENT – Course regular who has run solely at this venue for his last six starts, winning four starts ago over the 1m 1f trip. He is still six pounds above that mark though and looks vulnerable in this race, with his latest start off this mark resulting in a third in a weaker race than this. Sammy Jo Bell retains the ride and takes three pounds off his back, but he’s set for a struggle on this occasion.

7 GWORN – Another course and distance winner who was no match for Weekend Offender on his latest start over course and distance, finishing six lengths down on him in third. He remains on the same mark and it’s very hard to see him reaching the frame, even if he’s back to his best. A Class 3 victory is likely a bridge too far for him at this stage of his career, so others are readily preferred.

8 TESTA ROSSA – Seven-year-old who usually saves his best for Newcastle, which makes it all the more worrying that he could only manage eighth in a weaker looking race than this two weeks ago. The handicapper has only relented a pound and, despite Sean Mooney taking a further seven off his back, this looks a daunting task for him. Others are preferred and he’s best ignored at present.

9 BAHAMA MOON – Now back on to his last winning mark of 81, last seen at Beverley where he kept on well to finish third in a Class 4 event. This step up in trip is bound to suit him and Ben Robinson now takes over the ride, with him relieving a further five pounds off his back. Conditions will suit and David Barron remains in clinical form at present, so he has to be considered for each way placings.

10 ROYAL SHAHEEN – Won over the mile trip here on his penultimate start, but a four pound rise found him out upped in class when he could only manage sixth last time out. A return to this trip isn’t guaranteed to suit and, with the Alistair Whillans team in such poor form at present, he’s likely to miss out on the placings this time around.

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