4.40pm Wolverhampton Tips & Betting Preview 06/03/2017

This is a tricky Class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Recent form counts for a lot in this grade and PENSAX LADY can continue her good run of form with a victory here. She continues to progress and is still relatively unexposed compared to many of today’s rivals and a mark of 57 gives her something to work with here for Daniel Loughnane. Powered could be a real danger for the Dave Evans yard under Silvestre De Sousa but he’s still a maiden after 18 runs and it’s hard to recommend him on that basis. Nouvelle Ere should give another good account following on from his excellent run last time out.

1 TURNBURY – Well-beaten in a 10 furlong Class 5 at Lingfield last time out and is dropped 2lbs following that run. Ed Greatrex replaces a 7lb claimer which effectively leaves his mount 2lbs higher than for his last run and he’s hard to fancy today on the back of some very average form since a return to action in November. He did win a Class 5 handicap over a furlong further last June but would do well to give weight away to some of these today. Trainer has a very poor 2% strike rate here, recording just two wins from 92 attempts.

2 SIOUXPERHERO – Ran a nice race at a big price over C&D last time out, succumbing to a 1 1/2 length defeat which was a fair effort. He went close two starts before that as well at this track and clearly enjoys these conditions. The handicapper has left him on a mark of 60 which looks fair given what he’s shown recently and whilst he’s one of the most exposed runners in the field, he has shown some consistency and is partnered today by Tom Marquand (£59.38 profit to level stakes last 14 days). He has a fair chance of fighting out the finish if he can replicate the form of his last run although he is vulnerable to any improving types.

3 SPECULATOR – John Butler’s got a fair strike rate here of 15% (13 wins from 86 attempts) although his 18,000GNS purchase in October is yet to beat a rival home. He’s now dropped into Class 6 company for the first time since April 2016 (which he won) and the trip shouldn’t be an issue having won over just half a furlong further previously. His form is rotten but connections obviously felt they had something when he was purchased and if the money came, would be a serious contender.

4 NOUVELLE ERE – Was very weak in the betting on his last start but showed his price was merely a number having gone on to hack up by 4 lengths. This is going to demand a lot more now raised 6lbs in the weights although he can’t be discounted having shown a decent turn of foot to quicken clear of his rivals. He will need to improve again but Tony Carroll may have unlocked some potential in this Archipenko gelding and he cannot be discounted with a rise in the weights.

5 VICTOR’S BET – Has been on the downgrade since his last win in May 2016 which sees him race off a career-low mark of 60 today. He was well beaten in a Brighton handicap back in October and he makes his seasonal reappearance today which may be a pipe opener for events back on the turf next month. This is his tapeta debut and whilst the booking of Dougie Costello looks positive (£3 profit last 14 days), he may be one for later in the season and is best watched today.

6 LEMON THYME – One of the most unexposed horses in this field, Mike Murphy’s filly is yet to place in 5 starts and ran a shocker last time out finishing last of 9 over today’s C&D. She had posted a decent run two starts ago when only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by the progressive Simply Me but having failed to build on that, is difficult to recommend here as she remains on the same mark.

7 SCHOTTISCHE – Alan Bailey’s mare remains on the same mark following two reasonable efforts in defeat. She won a Class 6 handicap over a mile at Southwell at the end of January having dropped down to her last winning mark (53). She’s never won off a mark of 59 and although she’s been in a good vein of form recently, the statistics don’t work in her favour here and she may need to drop 2 or 3lbs before she can go in again. Best watched today.

8 GLORIOUS ASSET – Was picked up very cheaply (800GNS) back in 2015 and had shown little sign of life in his first runs for this yard but his effort last time out was a big improvement. He finished third over C&D and was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths with Lewis Edmunds claiming 5lbs. He loses that allowance today which will make life harder but he deserves some respect for that recent piece of form although he will need to step up on that to win here. He’s deserved of a prominent market position but needs to progress again to win.

9 SUITSUS – Career record of one win from 23 starts does little to inspire although he’s gone close on his last two occasions having been beaten less than a length in both races. He was sent off the 9/4 favourite last time out and he remains on the same mark which gives him another chance to better his somewhat poor record here. Timmy Murphy retains the ride although he’ll do very well to overcome a horrid draw in stall 11 and it may be worth looking elsewhere today with a few negatives against him at a short enough price.

10 PENSAX LADY – Has become something of a C&D regular with 8 runs over C&D since starting her racing career last January. She finished 2 lengths ahead of Glorious Asset last time out and is 4lbs better off at the weights today and has a leading chance here to follow up that good run with a victory here. She’s on a career high mark but the form of her last run demonstrated she is still progressing and with Luke Morris aboard again today, she has an excellent chance of following up that good run for a trainer with a 14% strike rate (£24 profit) in the last 14 days.

11 TWO IN THE PINK – Second runner for Ralph Smith in this but she doesn’t look to have a much better chance than her stable mate having gone 21 runs without a win. She went very close in a Lingfield handicap over this trip back in November but hasn’t built upon that and whilst she slips down another 2lbs to a mark of 57, she still looks really regressive. David Probert is an interesting booking and perhaps a change of scenery may spark some improvement but she’s hard to recommend on form.

12 FILAMENT OF GOLD – Steps down in trip today having been comfortably held over 12 & 14 furlongs on his last four starts. He’s now rated 1lb lower than his last winning mark and the booking of Josephine Gordon (15% strike rate last 14 days) looks positive for a yard that really struggles here (only a 7% strike rate from 121 runners). He’s certainly not without a chance although his form has been poor in this grade of late and the betting may be the best guide to his chances.

13 POWERED – Silvestre De Sousa has been in sparkling form since his return to the UK (27% strike rate) and he partners the bottom weight here. He’s not been disgraced in two Amateur Riders’ Handicaps and the handicapper has nudged him down another 1lb to race off a career low mark of 52. The jockey booking speaks for itself and with the trip and course set to suit, he could be in with a good chance if finding any sort of improvement. He is a maiden from 18 starts though so he comes with a warning signal but it wouldn’t take too much improvement to get involved here.

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