4.40pm Goodwood Tips & Betting Preview 04/08/2017

French trainer Francois Rohaut has won the last two renewals of this race with Amy Eria at odds of 33/1 on 2015 and Al Jazi at 12/1 last season, and the second named is back to try and retain her title this year. The last winning favourite was Visit back in 2008 and with this year’s renewal looking as competitive as always, we should be in for a decent race. Read on for our full horse by horse race preview for the 4.40pm at Goodwood this afternoon.

IN SUMMARY: Once again this could be all about who handles the going, and with Eternally lacking a recent run it seems best to side with SAINTED (Each Way) who has won two races on ground with plenty of give in it, and has any amount of further improvement to come. Her stable are in good sorts, and they don’t get any better than Jim Crowley in the saddle so at the prices she looks well worthy of a bet today.

1 MIX AND MINGLE – Always held in the highest regard by Newmarket trainer Chris Wall and although the classics priced beyond her abilities, she did win her first two races this season at Newmarket in a handicap and then at Lingfield in the Group Three Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes over seven furlongs when beating very useful filly Qemah by two and a quarter lengths. Last time out she found the company and the mile too much for her when weakening into twelfth behind the same rival in the Group Two Duke Of Cambridge Stakes but ought to be happier back at this trip. Sadly, all her wins have been on Good or faster ground which she seems unlikely to get here and as she has to carry a three-pound penalty for her Lingfield win she may find this beyond her despite being the best horse in the race on official figures.

2 AL JAZI – Won this last year for trainer Francois Rohaut and will make a bold bid at the follow up if handling the softer ground, though as a four-year-old she does have more weight to carry. The daughter of Canford Cliffs returned this season with a win at Maisons-Lafitte over six furlongs in Listed class when getting up close home but found them way too quick for her in the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot over the same trip when running on to finish five lengths behind winner The Tin Man. Better over this added furlong she is a major contender here with Frankie Dettori riding, and better still, has a win on heavy going to her name and won’t mind these conditions.

3 ASHADIHAN – Has a bit to find at these weights for trainer Kevin Ryan who has had six winners from his last forty-four runners for a 14% strike rate in the last two weeks. A daughter of Kyllachy won a Class Two event at Chelmsford on her return and has run twice since with a third at Lingfield on the polytrack and a five and a half-length fifth to Mix And Mingle at the same venue. She meets that rival on three pounds better terms but still needs to do better to get involved here.

4 BUYING TROUBLE – Ran on to take a Listed event at Haydock over six furlongs in late May but has been put in her place twice since at this level and only managed a five and a half-length fourth to Mystic Dawn at York last month. She steps up in trip here but has never won over further than the six and hasn’t looked at ease when encountering softer ground. Stable are out of sorts with one win from their last forty-six runners (2%), and others look to have far better chances.

5 ETERNALLY – John Gosden’s filly is hard to ignore with four wins from six starts and the potential to be even better with another winter on her back. After her latest win in Listed class at Ascot in October her trainer added “Eternally won well at Lingfield and we freshened her up. She’s come good in the autumn. She’s a grand filly with a good stride. I told him to ride her as you find it and he did. The ground had softened and that was fine for her”. That suggests she is unlikely to come unstuck on the going and is well worth a watch in the early markets for stable confidence, but she has been off for ten months and there has to be a reason for that absence. Certainly an interesting contender to be added to the shortlist.

6 SAINTED – Owned like Eternally by Cheveley Park Stud, William Haggas trains the daughter of Dutch Art who arrives here with a three wins from four races record. Returning from over a year off she was backed off the boards for a York handicap, and duly landed the bets by three lengths. Crucially she has plenty of form on softer going with a debut win on heavy at Doncaster, and a soft ground win at Newmarket over this trip and she could do a lot better than her current odds suggest. Her stable going very well with a 29% success rate and over 11 points of profit in the last two weeks and she seems to tick all the boxes for a huge run this afternoon with Champion jockey Jim Crowley in the saddle.

7 SAME JURISDICTION – Classy filly in her native South Africa with wins at up to Grade One level when trained by Duncan Howells. Connections deserve recognition for sending her here to test her mettle and she may finally be reaching her peak after runs at Leicester (when second to Bletchley) and a well beaten eleventh at Royal Ascot in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes. Looks up against it here on what we have seen so far but could be a surprise package for Ed Dunlop though this will be the softest ground she has ever encountered which could yet prove an issue.

8 WILD APPROACH – Travels over from the Moser stable in Germany and finished a good second to Shy Witch in a Group Three at Hamburg last time out. Stays further than this trip and has won at a mile and a furlong and seems likely to find one or two of these have too much speed when the chips are down. She does handle softer going but possibly not in this sort of company, though the booking of Jamie Spencer is intriguing which is perhaps the main positive.

9 DABAN – Far better than the bare form figures suggest after a win in the Nell Gwynn Stakes over this trip at Newmarket on her seasonal return followed by a two and a quarter length third to Winter in the 1000 Guineas and a five length sixth to Le Brividon in the Jersey Stakes when second in her group, only beaten by the winner. John Gosden yard remain in good heart with four recent winners but the going is an unknown factor and her sire (Acclamation) preferred it a lot faster.

10 ASKING – Just the two wins from thirteen starts for Aidan O’Brien’s filly who scored at Dundalk to take her maiden and again in a Curragh handicap over this trip. Previous attempts in higher class have seen her struggle though she did finish third to Realtra at Fairyhouse in July and cannot be dismissed if able to repeat that effort. May handle this going better than some and the O’Brien stable are in good form with a 27% strike rate, Ryan Moore rides but looks more likely to get a place than win.

11 BLETCHLEY – Nice looking daughter of 2000 Guineas winner Makfi who scored on her return at Leicester in a Class Three but was found out at Carlisle when stepped into Listed class to finish second to Elusive Beauty, and this looks a whole lot tougher. Room to improve after just the six starts and has handled going with cut in it but needs to find a lot more in this company for trainer Ralph Beckett whose string are ticking over with a 10% strike rate.

12 CLASSICAL TIMES – A daughter of Lawman, her only win so far was in a Redcar maiden and was seen running well at Royal Ascot in the Sandringham Handicap when appearing to fail to see out the mile before finishing a three and a half-length fifth to Con Te Partiro. Tries this seven furlongs for the first timer but yet to encounter ground this soft, and others appeal a lot more even though the Peter Chapple-Hyam yard are in good form with a 25% strike rate, though that does come from just the one winner from four runners and should not be taken too literally.

13 CRISTAL FIZZ – Not sure to appreciate the drop back in trip here after running on into fifth over the mile in the German 1000 Guineas, beaten over six lengths at the line. She did win her first two starts at Ascot and Newbury last Autumn, with a maiden and a Listed race, but has been well beaten this year though admittedly in higher class. She will be running on through beaten horses over this trip, but is unproven on the ground which has to be an issue despite the good form of the William Haggas stable.

14 PERFECT ANGEL – Trainer Andrew Balding is going well with six wins from their last forty runners for a 15% success rate and jockey Martin Dwyer is one of the more experienced pilots in the weighing room today. Ten runs have only seen the one win here at Goodwood over six furlongs last July with a second to Magical Memory over the same trip last time perhaps her best effort since. She ran on well that day suggesting the seventh furlong could see her do even better now, and as that was on soft ground there is every hope she will run a big race here as well.

15 SIBILANCE – Won her first two races at Kempton, the first over six furlongs as a two-year-old and the second on her return this season over a mile when seeing off Raven’s Lady by two and a quarter lengths. She finished third on her return at York in Listed class but didn’t seem to build on that when a well-beaten eighteenth in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot when weakening late on over the mile. Needs to do more but does have room to improve after just the four career starts.

16 TOMYRIS – Two wins from just the four starts and anything but disgraced in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot when a six length sixth to Winter, failing to get a run at a crucial stage and lacking the finishing kick close home to finish nearer. The drop back in trip may mean Andrea Atzeni needs to keep her nearer the pace this afternoon but he is riding out of his skin this week and with the Roger Varian stable who are in great form with a 24% strike rate in the last two weeks.

17 TUNDRA – Showed plenty of courage to win her maiden at Lingfield first time up this season by a neck from Buxted Dream and steps up in trip from that six furlongs here which ought to suit.  Booking of Silvestre de Sousa to ride suggests she may well be showing more on the Newmarket gallops, but on all known form she has stones to find to get involved here and is likely to start at a huge price despite her powerful connections.

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