4.40pm Chelmsford Tips & Betting Preview 23/02/2017

A good quality 6f handicap for fillies. Read on below for our full analysis, runner by runner guide & free tip.

IN SUMMARY: Ms Arsenal is interesting at a big price on what is her handicap debut but she is more of a market watch for the time being with a view to seeing whether money arrives at any point. LADY LYDIA is the one to keep on side with the drop back to 6f from 1 mile being taken to suit a 76 rated mare who was only beaten a couple of lengths at Listed level last April. She has lots of pace and often races too keenly over further, so it’s definitely a worthwhile move to go back sprinting for the first time in a while. From the remaining runners, Saved My Bacon can go well for the excellent 5lb claiming apprentice, Lewis Edmunds.

SAVED MY BACON – Didn’t perform too well over 5f here a couple of weeks ago but that was her first run since August and would be entitled to come on fitness wise. Boasts a highly respectable 6-29 record on the All-Weather and is 4-16 at today’s track, so is worthy of respect on those facts alone now edging down the weights. Still rated 77, however, and that’s 2lbs above the highest mark she has ever defied. The booking of Lewis Edmunds removing 5lbs with his claim will help but the percentage call is to oppose this time.

LADY LYDIA – Finished last of 6 runners at Wolverhampton (1m ½f, Std) three weeks ago on second and final start for Martin Smith but wasn’t disgraced having pulled hard over a trip that’s too far for her. It was a similar case the time before when close up behind Absolute Blast at Kempton (1m, Std) and on that run in particular, she’s temptingly treated back down in trip and at a much lower grade (Class 2 down to Class 4). A place on the shortlist is the least that’s merited and a big performance is expected to be forthcoming.

KASHTAN – Won her final start for Harry Dunlop in October at Wolverhampton (6f, Std) despite going off at 16/1 and looked to relish the return to an artificial surface. Subsequently sold for 10,000gns in December and reappeared for Stan Moore on Saturday at Kempton (6f, Std). Didn’t have a great draw in stall 11 but failed to land any sort of blow and eventually trailed home in eight position, 6 lengths behind the winner. Will need to dramatically improve for the outing and likely biting off more than she can chew at this level.

VEENA – Lightly-raced 4-year-old who got back to winning form three weeks ago when landing a 5 runner 6f handicap at Newcastle, defeating Poppy In The Wind by a head. Took her 6f All-Weather record to an unbeaten 2-2 in the process and has not been harshly treated with a 4lb rise up the weights. Steps up in grade now and can’t be ruled out, but trainer David Simcock is 0-22 in the past fortnight and it’s off-putting to see the yard struggling for form. As such, it may be worth opposing the filly despite her market position.

PENNY DREADFUL – Beaten over 6 lengths into third place at Kempton (6f, Std) a week ago and might be better than the bare form suggests having used a lot of early energy to get onto the lead from a wide draw. Ran well over C&D the time before when just a couple of lengths behind Beau Mistral and meets that rival on 3lb better terms, but unlikely to get an easy time of it up top with Kashtan in opposition and again does not have the best of draws. Opposable, for all that her winning turn mightn’t be all that far away.

BEAU MISTRAL – Flopped at Kempton (6f, Std) last time out when behind Penny Dreadful but had got the better of that rival the time before and still weighted to maintain the form on today’s terms. Boasts a decent 9-77 record for a horse of moderate ability and already twice a winner on the All-Weather in 2017, but is as high in the weights as she wants to be these days and it’s a long time since she won above Class 5 level.

MS ARSENAL – Very unexposed 5-year-old filly who has only seen the racecourse on 5 occasions and started life off by running in a couple of bumpers, showing ability first time at Market Rasen (2m, Good to Soft) before having excuses second time around at Southwell. Didn’t achieve much in a trio of runs on the flat after but hinted at better being likely in handicaps when eight of 14 in a Newmarket (7f, Soft) maiden in June. Begins life off a lowly mark of 60 and it will be interesting to see what pointers the market gives pre-race. She is, however, pretty tough to advise at this early stage but has a profile that’s open to improvement.

LOUMARIN – Ran well at Wolverhampton (6f, Std) a couple of weeks ago when third at 16/1 in cheekpieces for the first time and showed much more of an aptitude for the game than on her previous few starts. Looks reasonably well handicapped off a 5lb lower mark than her last success but that was in November of 2015 and she has never reached the same level again. Also ran below her mark on each occasion she faced up to the Chelmsford test and it remains to be seen whether the track fully suits.