4.35pm Kelso Tips & Betting Preview 04/03/2017

A field of eight go to post for the penultimate race of the day at Kelso on Saturday, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Not staying out the three mile trip, going back down to today’s trip should get SPOILS OF WAR off the mark at the fifth attempt over fences. Running a great race when third at Ayr over today’s distance, he was a non stayer when upped in trip and can be forgiven that run. Connections reach for the blinkers and he looks the one to beat with conditions to suit and the Lucinda Russell yard running well at present. His main danger looks to be The Organe Rogue, who has been raised 4lb for his latest win at Ayr.

1 MOON INDIGO – Sparsely raced since early 2012 with only four runs since March 2012. He returned this season when well beaten at Ayr (3m, Heavy), and again was well beaten over the same C&D a month later on his latest start. Now goes chasing but he hasn’t shown enough since returning to convince that he has any sort of chance in this. Others make far more appeal and he is likely best watched until he shows some form of note.

2 DREAM FLYER – Despite jumping left and being headed a long way out, he battled back bravely to win comfortably at Musselburgh in January (2m 7f, Good), he hasn’t however reached that level in two runs since. Raised 7lb, he was pulled up at Wetherby three weeks later (2m, Good to Soft) and suffered the same fate at Carlisle two weeks ago (2m 4f, Good to Soft). Only lowered a pound and quite possibly needs the handicapper to relent until he returns to form at this stage in his career (now aged ten). Conditions and the trip are fine, so despite the visor being tried by connections, he remains risky.

3 THE ORANGE ROGUE – Solidly out of form in two runs this season for Nick Alexander before springing back to life at Ayr on his latest start (2m 4f, Heavy), making all tenaciously despite some poor jumps on many occasions. For that, he has been raised 4lb which could be seen as generous, especially as he may be gifted a soft lead today. He hasn’t however won off a mark this before and he is a poor jumper at times, though the Alexander yard are in brilliant form at present. Likely to be a main contender and has to be respected, though he isn’t one to rely on heavily with lots of poor performances dotted in his record.

4 ACHILL ROAD BOY – Lightly raced eight year old who has only raced four times over fences, winning at Ayr on his third attempt back in December (2m 5f, Heavy). Up 3lb, things didn’t go to plan on his latest start, and he can be forgiven that run in retrospect. His current mark could be seen as lenient as he does remain with potential in this sphere and today’s conditions will suit him perfectly. Sam Coltherd takes off a useful 5lb and he is expected to be involved with all things considered. Place claims for sure.

5 ROSQUERO – Course winner back in December when sauntering home over the 2m 1f trip, but he has not been as good subsequently. Well beaten at Wetherby and pulled up at Newcastle, he went back over hurdles on his latest start at the same venue, finishing a very poor third (2m, Heavy). A horse who has is quirks and he is still above his last winning mark and may need further help from the handicapper at the age of twelve. Others make far more appeal and he is likely best left alone today.

6 VERKO – In brilliant form last winter with three chase victories but he has failed to hit those heights this season, well beaten on all four starts over fences since returning this season. Now 6lb below his last winning mark and has conditions to suit today, but that has been the case for all four of his runs this season and has had no excuse for all these poor runs. Makes little appeal against the top two in the market and cannot be recommended with any confidence.

7 DANEHILLS WELL – Still a maiden after eight attempts over fences, though he hasn’t been disgraced on occasion, finishing second at Ayr in December off a 3lb lower mark (2m 4f, Soft). Not at his best in three subsequent runs, never sighted on his latest run at Ayr (2m 4f, Soft) and will need more if he’s to be featuring off the same mark back over fences today. Possible place claims at his best, but he remains risky for win purposes and cannot be put forward.

8 SPOILS OF WAR – Lightly raced eight year old for Lucinda Russell who has been running well over fences, finishing a close third at Ayr on his third attempt over the bigger obstacles in December (2m 5f, Heavy). He wasn’t seen to best effect on his latest run at the same venue, running well for a long way before not seeing out the trip (3m, Heavy). Back down to this trip, he should be much happier and connections reach for the blinkers which should help him further. The yard itself are in brilliant form at present and he looks the likely winner off a mark of 94, which he is likely to be dangerous off.

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