4.30pm Ludlow Tips & Betting Preview 03/04/2017

This is an interesting novices’ contest at Ludlow, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Alan King’s ZEEHAN should improve a lot for her initial outing over hurdles and she should progress again and take this race given she receives 6lbs from her older rivals. Canoodle has run with promise in better races than this and is the main danger whilst any money for the ex-Flat French horse Deduce would be significant.

1 CANOODLE – Hughie Morrison doesn’t have too many hurdlers and his mare here is an interesting type. She won on debut in first time blinkers in a National Hunt Flat race and wasn’t disgraced in a Class 1 flat race at Cheltenham on just her second start, finishing eighth of the 19 strong field. She couldn’t improve upon those efforts earlier this year but off a break and dropped back into maiden company, she should be capable of winning a race of this nature. Jockey is riding at a strike rate of 21% currently.

2 CELESTIAL CHIMES – Last of 8, beaten 76 lengths in November on Good ground at Warwick. That came in a National Hunt Flat race and it’s extremely hard to forecast a major reversal in form to put her in contention here on her hurdling debut. The yard are operating at a 7% strike rate here and she’s best watched with a 7lb claimer on board today.

3 JUPITER’S GIFT – Mixed bag of efforts to date with a placed effort over today’s conditions sandwiched between two very poor runs. She’s struggled in two novice hurdle contests against better opposition and the latest of those efforts came just 12 days ago. Race fitness is assured and she’ll fare much better here on some drier ground. There has been money about for her on her last couple of runs and she’s not discounted now David Bass gets on board. Interesting.

4 KAHALEESI – Left Philip Hobbs after just three runs and she finished pulled up on her first start for a new stable at Hereford earlier this month. It’s hard to imagine she’s progressed much from that initial run and although race fitness is assured, it’s hard to be confident about her chances here. A drop back in trip is probably the right move at this stage and her jockey booking catches the eye. One for a second market look.

5 MAKE MY HEART FLY – Finished second in two National Hunt Flat races earlier last year which included a second in a Class 4 contest. Both of those efforts came on better ground so it’s easy to understand why she struggled over the winter on worse ground and it’s notable she’s really been brought into her own now. She’ll do better on this drier ground and is one to expect improvement from.

6 MISS NIGHT OWL – Yard have been in excellent form of late (27% strike rate) and their mare here is likely to be popular. She’s one of the more experienced runners in the field and she won a National Hunt Open Flat race last October at Aintree which would be good enough form to get competitive here. She’s only run over hurdles once and she ran with credit having been well-backed and she’ll do better here now dropped into maiden company. Respected.

7 DEDUCE – Iffraaj filly who has spent most of her career racing on the flat in France. She arrived in the UK earlier this year and unseated her rider having looked beaten in the run after making a few mistakes. She needs to sharpen up her hurdling to get involved in this but her flat form would give her a bit of a chance. She’s an interesting runner for this yard.

8 WHITSTABLE PEARL – Ex-flat racer who won a handicap last year off a mark of 50. She was never more than a low grade performer on All-Weather surfaces and she was well beaten on debut in a really tough contest. She has since run on the flat and it’s hard to imagine a reversal in her last piece of form in this code and she’s best avoided here and is one for handicapping.

9 ZEEHAN – Yard have a 22% strike rate here and this filly finished a respectable fourth on debut in a Juvenile Hurdle at Stratford in March. She was well-supported that day and ran well for a long period so she should come on a lot for that experience and she gets 6lbs from her older rivals. She won on the flat having been rated 72 and she’s one of the more likely winners of this for a yard that know the time of day.

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