4.30pm Lingfield Tips & Betting Preview 28/02/2017

A field of twelve go to post for the third race of the day at Lingfield on Tuesday, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Top weight will be no problem for BETSALOTTIE who returned from a fourth month break with a pleasing third at Kempton, and he is likely to strip much fitter for that run. A C&D winner off today’s mark last year, if building on that return effort he should be hard to beat with Mitch Godwin taking the ride and stall three is certainly a gift to him. Perhaps his biggest threat will be Bold Max, as if the step up in trip has a positive effect he is certainly in good enough form to go close.

1 BETSALOTTIE – Won over C&D in May 2016 off today’s mark and he made a pleasing return from four months off when third at Kempton two weeks ago (1m, Std). He was keen that day and would have likely finished closer had he settled earlier on, but nevertheless, it was a very good return from a break. He’s likely to have come on from that run and his mark is clearly not  beyond him on previous evidence, with stall three a good draw. Mitch Godwin takes the ride and despite top weight, he looks the likely winner of this.

2 BOOKMAKER – Finally notched up his sixth win here over the seven furlong trip in January, just holding on under today’s rider. Despite a 3lb rise for the nose victory, he ran another good race here over the same C&D when a short head second a week later. Not so good on his latest start when raised a further pound, finding little at Kempton two weeks ago (7f, Std). Now upped in trip which does raise a question mark and he clearly needs more off this mark, though he would have claims if building upon his recent runs. Place claims but may just be vulnerable today for win purposes with all things considered.

3 HOLD FIRM – Has been running well in defeat this season and posted possibly his best effort yet when second at Chelmsford three weeks ago, beaten by a rapidly improving sort (1m 2f, Std). The drop back to the mile holds no fears and he’s entitled to be in the mix again off the same mark, which happens to also be his last winning mark. Clearly needs more though and although she does have lively place claims under 5lb claimer Gabriele Malune, others make more appeal for win purposes.

4 SHEER INTENSITY – Made a promising stable debut for David Evans back in December when third over C&D, but she has failed to build on that since then and has been well beaten on all starts since then. His latest effort when tenth at Wolverhampton two weeks ago was another dismal effort and despite being lowered a further 3lb, he makes little appeal as he has far too much to prove at present, so is likely best watched again.

5 DUKES MEADOW – One win from twenty-six under rules but hasn’t been disgraced of late, finishing a good second at Kempton when last seen two weeks ago (1m, Std), running on well when posted too far back to make any impression for the victory. He remains on the same mark today under Rhiain Ingram and is likely to run another good race, though it is quite hard to envisage him winning this with his overall record. Likely place claims but others are preferred for win purposes.

6 IXELLES DIAMOND – Returned from five months off when making a good stable debut for Lee Carter two weeks ago, finishing third at Kempton and only a neck behind Dukes Meadow on the occasion (1m, Std). Likely to build on that effort and he remains on a very lowly mark at present, now 17lb below his last winning mark, although did that come way back in August 2014 at Epsom. Nevertheless, he looks a very likely candidate under Louis Steward who is a brilliant apprentice so has to be respected as such.

7 CAIUS COLLEGE GIRL – Has shown positive signs every so often for this yard and although her latest fifth at Wolverhampton was a good effort by her standards, she was still well beaten in fifth and never looked a likely winner (1m, Std). This is arguably tougher and she remains opposable at present, with a record of no wins from eleven on the all weather not helping her case. Look elsewhere today.

8 BREAKHART – Ran a good race when second at Kempton in a Class 7 race (1m, Std) but he is no back into Class 6 company and this is tough race for the grade. His last win came at Kempton way back in March 2015 off a 25lb higher mark, so he is obviously well treated on the best of his form. At the age of ten though, he’s unlikely to hit those heights again and others make far more appeal, despite Andrew Balding’s yard flying at present.

9 INDUS VALLEY – Stablemate to Ixelles Diamond who was never dangerous when last seen over the six furlong trip here in December, and will need this rise in trip to help him. His mark has no been reduced to 48 which does see him very well treated on the best of his form, but he remains a risky proposition on what he has shown so far this season. Well drawn and no excuses today under 3lb claimer Paddy Bradley, but others are easily preferred at present.

10 NO NO CARDINAL – Better know as a hurdler/chaser but wasn’t necessarily disgraced when fourth at Kempton on his latest start, though he was some way behind both Dukes Meadow and Ixelles Diamond (1m, Std). It’s possible that he will come on for that run but others do have much stronger cases for them and an overall record of two wins from forty starts under rules doesn’t make for impressive reading. Would be a surprise winner.

11 LOCOMMOTION – Yet to take victory after fifteen attempts and he is now regressing for Matthew Salaman, posting one of his worst efforts when all but tailed off at Southwell in December (7f, Std). Up in trip but still makes no appeal under Callum Shepherd and is best avoided.

12 BOLD MAX – One win from forty-two starts under rules but hasn’t been disgraced the last twice here, placing at over the seven furlong trip earlier in the month and then finishing a close sixth two weeks later Was running on well on both occasions so going up in trip may well suit him better, so does rate as a interesting candidate today. If going up in trip does indeed have a positive effect, he isn’t one to rule out for the placings and has to be respected for Zoe Davison.

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