4.30pm Carlisle Tips & Betting Preview 19/06/2017

A competitive field of five go to post for the 16:30 at Carlisle on Monday afternoon, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Seduce Me and Greenview Paradise have both hinted that their time may be near but they’ll have to wait a bit longer as this race is firmly in the grasp of CONTENTMENT for William Haggas. This three year old filly returned this season when romping away with a maiden at Goodwood in late May and a mark of 78 on handicap debut looks lenient as she should go better with race fitness under belt. She looks very likely to make all in this and it’s impossible to see past her on this occasion.

1 CONTENTMENT – Lightly raced three year old for William Haggas who made all in a Goodwood maiden on her  seasonal reappearance, eased towards the finish for a comfortable success. She starts out in handicaps off a mark of 78, which looks extremely lenient as she has the potential better and should be able to dominate this field from the front under the in form jockey Ben Curtis. She now has race fitness and should kick away from this field on her way to better things.

2 SEDUCE ME – Exposed three year old in the context of this race who was a good enough second at Nottingham when last seen in May, though that was over the 1m 2f trip and on that evidence she may not be suited going back down in trip where she was well beaten on two six furlong runs. If building on that latest second with a strong pace on show she would have frame claims under Paul Mulrennan, but she should fall short for win purposes.

3 MISS SHERIDAN – Won two of her last three runs for Michael Easterby at the mile distance, with a step up to the 1m 2f trip last time out back firing as she clearly didn’t stay the distance. A drop back in trip will suit on that evidence, though getting to the lead may be tough for her as she’ll have competition and more is needed off a mark of 74. Others make more appeal on this occasion and she’s best watched.

4 WHATSTHEMESSAGE – Won on her debut at Ayr back in August but she has been zero from six since in handicaps for Keith Dalgleish and although she has slipped to an attractive mark, she didn’t’ show signs that she was coming to the boil when well beaten at Newcastle when last seen. Hard to fancy her now upped in class once again and she’s best left alone in this company as she’s likely to be happier down in grade.

5 GREENVIEW PARADISE – Has produced career best form the last twice for Richard Fahey with a pair of seconds at Catterick and Beverley, with the latter of those where she was beaten only a short head. She’s been raised three pounds as a result and does remain with potential, but this is a tougher race and she needs to raise her game if she’s to be threatening in this. Likely one of the main dangers off a basement mark but she is likely to fall short again.

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