4.30pm Ayr Tips & Betting Preview 08/08/2016

The most valuable race on Monday’s Ayr card is a Class 3 handicap over 1m2f. Read our full race preview for our experts’ betting tips.

IN SUMMARY: Lightly raced 3yo Archippos is an obvious one for the shortlist as he moves into a handicap after winning a maiden on just his second start. However, it could be worth chancing MICA MIKA, who seemed to lose his way at the end of last season and was comfortably held when back in action a couple of weeks ago, but ran a big race when a very close second to Gworn in this event last year, is on a handy mark now and will be suited by rain-softened ground. Gworn earns good marks for his consistency here in recent months and is likely to mount a bold defence of his crown. Nicholas T and Nietzsche are others to consider.

1 Finn Class – Now back on the same mark as when gaining narrow-margin win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup (1m, soft) in April but form has dipped since then; will be favoured by the forecast overnight rain but has stamina to prove over new trip and needs to up his game.

2 Corton Lad – Down the field in valuable 1m4f event at Ripon last month but had been in good form beforehand, notably when winning there (1m2f, good) four starts ago; current mark demands new career-best performance, though, and rain-softened ground probably won’t be ideal.

3 Mica Mika – Out of form on the Flat and over hurdles in the autumn and made low-key return to action last month; however, now 2lb lower than when very close second to Gworn in this race last year and will cope will if the ground turns soft; dangerous to ignore.

4 Nicholas T – Lightly raced 4yo who began career in bumpers before winning 1m course maiden on Flat debut in June; disappointed after taking too keen a hold over that trip here last time but had previously gone close in two handicaps (1m2f/1m), and we may not have seen the best of him yet.

5 Gworn – Beat Mica Mika in a photo-finish to land this prize in 2015 and is currently 2lb lower; versatile ground-wise and been consistent here in recent months, so it’s reasonable to expect him to be in the thick of things again; cheekpieces left off this time.

6 Robinnielly – In the frame all four starts this season, most recently when gaining clearcut win after two-month break at Hamilton (1m1f, good) in July; evidently in excellent nick and still has fairly low mileage, but now needs to prove he can cope with 7lb rise on today’s slower ground.

7 Royal Regent – Has gained both his wins on soft ground here, the more recent over today’s trip last month; however, was allowed to set a steady pace in a six-runner Class 5 event on that occasion and was comfortably held off revised mark when last in action; faces a tough assignment in this company.

8 Navajo War Dance – Delivered on 2yo promise when 4l winner of C&D maiden (good to soft) on seasonal/stable debut in May; subsequent Royal Ascot defeat can be overlooked but he was disappointing when only fourth of five at Haydock (10.3f, soft) last month and now has a point to prove.

9 Archippos – Outran 33-1 odds when third to Nicholas T here (1m, good to firm) on debut in June and displayed pleasing improvement to open account at Hamilton (8.3f, good) last month; encounters slower ground and tougher opposition in this handicap but has obvious scope to progress again.

10 Hibou – Won Lingfield maiden (1m, AW) in first-time blinkers for Godolphin last summer but made only one more start for that outfit, finishing third of five in a handicap soon afterwards; soundly beaten here (1m, soft) for new stable last month and headgear missing again today, but no surprise if he comes good for Iain Jardine soon.

11 Nietzsche – Never really threatened when midfield at Royal Ascot (1m4f, soft) in June but certainly wasn’t disgraced there and will find this much easier; will be suited by the forecast overnight rain and might still have some improvement to come.

myracing Forecast Prices: 7/2 Robinnielly, 6/1 Nicholas T, Archippos, Nietzsche, 7/1 Gworn, Navajo War Dance, 8/1 Corton Lad, 12/1 Royal Regent, 14/1 Finn Class, MIca Mika, 20/1 Hibou

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