4.25pm Carlisle Tips & Betting Preview 18/09/2017

Only eight runners go to post, but it is a solid and competitive looking Class 4 handicap over seven furlongs. Our runner by runner preview and expert tip are below.

IN SUMMARY: SPECIALV has conditions in her favour, with a strong pace to aim at with a couple of these to take them along at a solid clip. She is effective over six furlongs to a mile and the small rise for a recent Haydock win looks well within her grasp. God Willing won at this time of year in 2016, but he is a very rare winner, more of a placepot horse. Rock N Rolla ran right up to his best at the weekend following a gelding operation. That was over nine furlongs, so if the drop in trip isn’t a concern and this doesn’t come too quick he has an each way chance.

1 TADAAWOL – Had to expend a lot of energy to get to the front at Chester on Saturday, with nothing left when challengers came at him in the final furlong. He relishes plenty of cut in the ground which he will get once more here, but his better form has come over on a far sharper seven furlongs than this track provides. Dangerous if getting a soft lead, but looks vulnerable to others once more late on given that he is ten pounds above his last winning mark.

2 FLYBOY – A winner just once from 19 starts, he is a tricky customer to produce. He looked like winning at Leicester earlier this season, but was nailed on the line having found less when hitting the front than looked likely. Soft ground is perfect for him – as is a stiff seven furlongs trip – so he will have no issues with conditions. That said, he needs a canny ride to be produced from the back at just the right time.

3 GOD WILLING – Another who finds getting his head in front difficult, he has scored once in 38 starts since winning on his debut. He came close at Thirsk earlier this month after having fallen a long way in the weights from his peak. He has form on soft ground (though he is untried on heavy), so from nine pounds lower than the mark he won from this time last year a place would come as no surprise.

4 GILMER – Ran up a smart sequence of form last year over five and six furlongs on soft ground, adding an Ayr handicap over the latter trip to his haul back in June. His form over similar trips to this is nothing like as good as his sprinting form, so he is best watched, despite the cheekpieces worn the last twice being removed on this occasion after having proved ineffectual.

5 ROCK N ROLLA – A gelding operation brought him right back to his best on Saturday when runner-up over nine furlongs at Hamilton. The ground was soft there so he will have no issues with the surface, although the quarter mile step down in trip isn’t a positive move. He is off a handy weight so connections naturally want to bring him out quickly to capitalise. However, it is a quick turnaround after a hard race so may not be ideal.

6 SPECIALV – All three turf wins have come with cut in the ground, most recently over six furlongs in August. The strong pace helped her on that occasion, the race opening up in front of her to pick up the pieces. She has won over a mile in the past so this stiff seven should be no problem for her given the way she has been staying on over shorter of late. She is still well enough treated on her best form and this contest should be run to suit her. Looks a big each way player.

7 BEVERLEY BULLET – This seven furlongs takes some getting when the ground is on the soft side, but he has won over ten furlongs at Pontefract this season so this is surely an insufficient test for the horse. He made all the running over nine furlongs at this track earlier in the season when fitted with first-time cheekpieces; those look like the best tactics once more to try to run the sting out of some quicker rivals.

8 REDARNA – Third on his last three starts all at this track, once each over six furlongs, seven furlongs and a mile. He was sent off favourite for a lesser race last time at this trip on heavy ground, never able to muster the pace to run down the front pair. This should be run at a good clip with a couple who like to go from the front, but this is probably a little beyond his capabilities for all that he is still unexposed.

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