4.25pm Ayr Tips & Betting Preview 10/07/207

The pick of the Ayr card on Monday afternoon is a five furlong sprint, with 11 runners chasing a first prize of £9,700. Read on for our expert tip and preview for the contest.

IN SUMMARY: A cracking looking sprint, it would be no surprise to see Jack Dexter in the money given his form in the past. Even though Rural Celebration rather ruined her handicap mark in a Listed race last time, she has been competitive off slightly lower in the past so she has an each way squeak. Nevertheless, the vote goes to LATHOM; he has not won since his juvenile days, but is looking very well treated these days, and a first time hood could well be the key to finally getting the best out of him again.

1 RURAL CELEBRATION – Produced a clear career best over this course and distance last time when runner-up in a Listed contest. That has pushed her handicap mark up by six pounds, but a new mark of 90 would still be workable if she were able to reproduce that. She has placed off 87 and 88 in the past so can certainly be given an each way chance in the race.

2 GAMESOMENON RUNNER Has managed just a single win from 26 career starts in a Nottingham maiden in 2013. He has kept smart company since, however, hitting the frame from as high as 99, ten pounds above the mark he runs from here. Twice close up from a mark of 93 this season, he is very well treated on his best, it would be no surprise to see him pick up a belated second career win.

3 JACK DEXTER – Super veteran, showed he is far from a back number when finishing fourth in a better contest than this on the All Weather last time out. The handicapper has dropped him a further pound for that, leaving him a long way well in on his peak runs. Would not want the track too quick, but if they go a strong pace in front, he could make the frame once again.

4 MY NAME IS RIO – Won over course and distance two runs ago from five pounds lower, but that – like the majority of his best form – came on a soft surface. The new mark should not be an excuse on his past form, but connections will be hoping that the current good to soft places in the ground are a little more prevalent at post time.

5 SHOWDAISY – Ran by far her best race of the season at Musselburgh two runs ago, but was unable to beat a single rival home the only time we have seen her since. Two of her three turf wins have come at that Scottish track, so perhaps it will be a further visit there that will be the spark back to life that her general 2017 form is in need of.

6 CONFESSIONAL – Dropped a long way down the weights from his best, falling another three pounds on his latest run when well behind Jack Dexter at Newcastle. Won from both two and four pounds lower last season, so might need a little more help from the assessor before he gets his head back in front.

7 EL HOMBRE – Sole three-year-old in the line-up, he has already enjoyed a successful 2017, scoring over six furlongs at Hamilton and Haydock. Runner-up over this course and distance from this mark last time was solid, but he may find at least one of these five furlong specialists has a little too much toe for him.

8 LATHOM – Has not won since landing the Super Sprint at Newbury in July 2015, beginning life for this yard last June from 98, running off just 82 now. A hood is tried by connections today in an attempt to find the key to him as well as on a couple of runs in the last year (Doncaster in August 2016 and Chelmsford this season). A mark of 82 should be workable.

9 ROYAL BRAVE – Completed a hat-trick in May when winning over this course and distance from a one pound lower mark. That extra pound is not going to make too much of a difference, but he was a shade disappointing last time out and now has a little more to do in a race with a number of potentially well treated rivals.

10 INVINCIBLE RIDGE – Won over this course and distance last August from a three pound higher mark, albeit at Class 4 level. Three pounds better off with Royal Brave for a three quarter length beating earlier in the season, he probably is not capable of his very best as a nine-year-old, but he has an outside squeak from this mark.

11 FOXTROT KNIGHT – Dead heated off this mark at Ripon back in April, the same mark he scored from at Windsor in June 2015. Both of those were Class 4 contests – the highest grade he has won at. So although he is off a winnable mark, this race is likely to be a little more competitive than he cares for.

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