4.20pm York Tips & Betting Preview 10/06/2016

IN SUMMARY: Last year’s runner-up LOVE ISLAND (14/1 Each Way) is seemingly more exposed than a few of today’s rivals but she has made a solid start to her campaign, is quite likely to have been targeted at this race and looks overpriced. She gets the nod ahead of Alqubbah, who was placed in a Listed event two starts ago. Dawaa ran better than her finishing position suggests when ninth in a hot 7f contest at Goodwood recently and is interesting now dropped back in trip. Last year’s winner Gran Canaria Queen has been well below her best this season but lurks on a dangerous mark and any market support should be noted. Mehronissa seems to be making good progress but would make more appeal on slower ground.

1 Mehronissa – Two wins last season and also hit the target when back in action at Haydock (6f, good to soft) last month; not yet fully exposed and could easily have more to offer but now needs to prove she’s fully effective on fast ground; hood refitted.

2 Queen’s Pearl – Scored readily by 6l at Nottingham last summer but was hit hard by the handicapper for that and didn’t make any further progress; down the field when tackling Listed company back at Nottingham on last month’s reappearance and has something to prove now.

3 Mayfair Lady – Made all to win valuable C&D (good to soft) nursery at the Ebor festival last summer but was a beaten favourite in Pattern company on her next two starts and it remains to be seen how well she copes with a lofty BHA rating of 100 now back in a handicap.

4 Love Island – Made satisfactory seasonal debut over C&D last month and ran well when fourth at Ripon (6f, good to firm) a few days later; subsequent 2lb drop puts her back on the same mark as when second to Gran Canaria Queen in this race last year; can make her presence felt.

5 Tumblewind – Has gained all five wins over 5f, the latest on seasonal debut at Thirsk in April; stays 6f and latest defeat can be overlooked (boxed in for much of the contest) but probably remains vulnerable off current mark.

6 Alqubbah – Placed in Nottingham Listed event (6f, good to firm) last month and suffered interference when midfield in valuable 7f Goodwood handicap on latest outing; probably reliant on a decent gallop back at this trip but still needs to be taken very seriously.

7 Rural Celebration – Ought to have been suited by the slow ground when very disappointing on first two starts this season; took big step back in the right direction when third at Newcastle (6f, AW) last month but needs to build on that performance to cope with today’s rise in class.

8 Lady Clair – Down the field on both her starts for a French trainer this spring; fared better when keeping-on fourth at Chester (6f, good) on recent debut for Karl Burke but subsequent 3lb drop in the weights not quite enough to tempt.

9 Dawaa – Ran quite a bit better than finishing position suggests when ninth of 14 in valuable 7f Goodwood handicap three weeks ago, where she only faded out of contention in the last half furlong; only 1lb lower here but back against own sex now and might be suited by the return to 6f.

10 Gran Canaria Queen – Has looked out of form on her four starts this season but the middle of her three wins in 2015 was recorded in this event and the latest off a mark 5lb higher than today’s; obvious claims if bouncing back to form and will be feared if strong in the betting.

11 Giddy – Lightly raced 3yo who has been placed in 6f handicaps at Ripon and Chester on her two starts this season; has some scope for improvement but is 2lb out of the weights today and others have more pressing claims.

myracing Forecast Prices: 4/1 Mehronissa, Alqubbah, 5/1 Mayfair Lady, Giddy, 10/1 Love Island, 12/1 Queen’ Pearl, Dawaa, 16/1 Rural Celebration, Lady Clair, Gran Canaria Queen, 20/1 Tumblewind