IN SUMMARY: Three of these fought out the finish to the Group 3 Gladness Stakes over 7f at the Curragh a fortnight ago and that piece of form probably holds the key to this contest. ONENIGHTIDREAMED needed to dig deep to grind out a narrow victory there and both Flight Risk and Joailliere are better off at the weights today, but Tommy Stack’s gelding will probably be better suited by today’s longer trip and is taken to succeed again. Second choice is Joailliere, who has only had four starts and could still have a bit more to offer. Jeremys Joy bolted up in a low-grade handicap on her recent stable debut and it will be interesting to see how she fares on this audacious attempt to snatch some valuable “black type”.
1 Onenightidreamed – Slightly disappointing when making seasonal debut in the Irish Lincolnshire (a race he won in 2015) but produced new career-best performance to land Group 3 Gladness Stakes at the Curragh (7f, heavy) this month; probably better suited by 1m and commands respect.
2 Brendan Brackan – Ended last season with front-running success in Listed event at Cork (8.5f, yielding to soft); ought to cope with the slower ground here and won’t be far away if matching that performance, but is seemingly a declining force and his younger rivals make more appeal.
3 Flight Risk – Has modest strike-rate (2-17) for a horse of his ability but built upon encouraging seasonal debut when close second to Onenightidreamed in the Gladness at the Curragh (7f, heavy) this month; 2lb better off with that rival here and the longer trip won’t be a problem.
4 Mohaayed – Outran 66-1 odds when very respectable sixth in last year’s Irish 2,000 Guineas but is probably slightly flattered by that form; this race will take more winning than the small-field event he collected at Gowran (9.5f, good) in October and he never really threatened in the Irish Lincolnshire last month.
5 Dragon Fei – Very effective on slow ground but has always found things tough when tackling Pattern company, most recently when last of five at the Curragh (1m2f, heavy) a fortnight ago; today’s drop back in trip is probably not ideal and she looks up against it again.
6 Ibergman – Won a quite valuable fillies’ handicap over C&D (yielding ground) in September but made low-key seasonal reappearance in the Irish Lincolnshire last month and needs to display a decent jolt of improvement to play a part on these terms.
7 Jeremys Joy – Easily drew clear to make winning seasonal/stable debut in run-of-the-mill Leopardstown handicap (1m2f, heavy) 11 days ago; takes on much stronger opposition here but is clearly in excellent nick and well equipped to cope with slow ground, so it’s easy to understand why connections are tempted to aim for some valuable “black type”.
8 Joailliere – Lightly raced 4yo who has finished third in slow-ground Group 3 events on both her starts this season, more recently behind a couple of today’s rivals in the Gladness Stakes (7f); slightly better off at the weights this time and not yet fully exposed; leading contender.
9 Lilys Rainbow – Wasn’t disgraced on any of her six runs in Listed company last season and made pleasing reappearance when placed in Irish Lincolnshire at the Curragh (1m, yielding to soft) last month, but isn’t favoured by today’s weights and faces a tough assignment.
myracing Forecast Prices: 9/4 Joailliere, 5/2 Flight Risk, 100/30 Onenightidreamed, 7/1 Brendan Brackan, 12/1 Jeremys Joy, 14/1 Mohaayed, 20/1 Lilys Rainbow, 50/1 Dragon Fei, Ibergman