4.10pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 24/01/2017

The concluding contest at Southwell on Tuesday afternoon is a competitive looking 0-60 handicap over a mile. Read on for our experts tip plus a runner by runner preview for the race.

IN SUMMARY: While plentiful in numbers, SAMPHIRE COAST stands out here as an unexposed progressive type. He showed much improved form stepped up to this C&D last time with a five pound rise in the weights likely to underestimate him. Powered was sent off favourite for that contest which may have come too soon, just four days after a runner up effort here. If that run can be forgiven he could be overpriced. There is hope in the pedigree of Rocket Ronnie that Fibresand may suit and if given his head early, he could make the placings at double figure odds.

1 SAMPHIRE COAST – Best form in three maiden runs came on the Fibresand here so it was no surprise that Derek Shaw brought his charge back to Southwell for his handicap debut. An improved showing came over seven furlongs that day with a first time visor, staying on in taking fashion from the back of the field. His half sister was a multiple Listed winner over a mile and 10f for Sir Mark Prescott, a step up in trip getting this horse off the mark last time. That was the second division of a mile handicap (the first won by Playful Dude) won in the quicker time. He remains unexposed and capable of better yet as he continues to mature.

2 EINSTEIN – Just the four career starts but has worn a tongue strap for each of them. He has shown promise to a degree in them all, his best effort coming on the Polytrack at Chelmsford when just failing to see out the 10f trip. Connections stepped him back to a mile here last time when well beaten by Playful Dude. Taking a prominent early position, he was out of the kickback but failed to give his running. On the back of a career worst, it is surprising to see him back on the Fibresand again here.

3 LITTLE CHOOSEY – Yet to win in nine tries on the Fibresand but has four placed efforts to her name in that time. She was easily brushed aside by Samphire Coast last time off this mark but kept on to take a clear second. She is fully effective over this trip but she is yet to win off this high a mark in a handicap so a supporting role may again be the best that she can hope for.

4 TRUST ME BOY – Landed a bit of a punt when scoring at this track in February, a third career success, all over the seven furlong trip. Well beaten the last twice he has attempted a mile here, the trip looks to be the major concern. He is a pound below his last winning mark so is well enough handicapped to strike if the trip isn’t a problem but he would have appealed more at shorter.

5 PLAYFUL DUDE – Finally off the mark over C&D last time, winning at the tenth time of asking. He has previously been second three times on the bounce but in a weak contest, sent off 5/4 favourite, the duck was broken. A four pound rise for that is harsh enough on the bare form, he didn’t need to improve on his placed efforts to win but that may have done his confidence good and his prominent racing style favours the way races are run on the Fibresand.

6 THE DUKKERER – Just a sole win on artificial surfaces, on Polytrack at Chelmsford in September 2015. She ran well on her Fibresand debut way back in 2013 but a pair of subsequent efforts at Southwell have both been below par. She ran with credit at a similar level at Wolverhampton nine days ago but despite the lengthy timespan since her last win, she is still two pounds above that winning mark and may continue to find things a struggle.

7 ROCKET RONNIE – Never better than third in eight previous tries on sand but this is his debut on the Fibresand. His dam is by Arch who has been a good source of Fibresand winners down the years and her half brother, Badawi, was a winner on the surface. He went well enough from the front at Wolverhampton two starts ago, pulling too hard when held up last time. Could be a spot of value if allowed his head at a track that suits those who race close to the pace.

8 DOSE – Still a maiden after twelve starts but she has run into the places three times at Wolverhampton on the Tapeta. This will be her Fibresand debut but somewhat surprisingly for a fast ground turf sire, Teofilo has had a fair degree of success when it comes to the surface here. She will need to improve up in the weights again from being placed last time out but come from a shrewd yard who boasted a 21% strike rate here in 2016.

9 POWERED – Very disappointing when last seen having been heavily backed for the in form David Evans yard. He had caught the eye the time before, staying on from a long way back over C&D and perhaps the run came a little soon just four days after. He was sent off 7/4 favourite for the race that Samphire Coast won so if excusing that performance would be a big player here off the same mark. A market check is strongly advised as early shows as long as 10/1 could be too big.

10 FALCON’S REIGN – Hasn’t really taken to hurdling in four starts and should prove much happier back on the Firesand. Won over 7f here back in February off a four pound lower mark but has previous placed form from higher ratings in in early 2015. He lacks consistency and is hard to support with any confidence but the Michael Appleby yard are always to be respected here.

11 ALBERT BOY – Four career runs so far on Fibresand, failing to land a significant blow in any of them. He won at Redcar last April on heavy ground, following that up with a close second back at the same track. He is tumbling down the handicap but is yet to look like cashing in on the lower mark. First time blinkers are where the hopes are pinned but cheek pieces failed to elicit a positive response when tried and he can only be watched for a yard still scuffling for form.

12 GENERAL TUFTO – As admirable a veteran as there is, a true legend of the Fibresand, he managed to get his head back in front in December in a similar contest to this. That was his fifteenth course win including thirteen over this C&D and he’s backed the win up with a pair of decent placed efforts off this same mark of 52. He starts slowly and is regularly found off the bridle within the first furlong but the harder they go on the front, the better he will like it and although he is likely to find a few of the younger legs too spritely, it would be folly to disregard him completely.

13 AFKAR – NON RUNNER

14 TELL THE STARS – Unexposed filly has was in solid form for this level on the Newcastle Tapeta in the Autumn, albeit at sprint trips. She shaped like a step up in trip could be of benefit to her, despite the fact that breeding says that sprinting should be her game. This will be her Fibresand debut, looking the stable’s first string on jockey bookings. Her sire Monsieur Bond had 11 winners from 45 runners on the surface in 2016 while a half brother to her dam was placed on Fibresand so there is hope from the pedigree that the surface will suit.

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