4.00pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 20/03/2017

There are a few lovely types in this, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: The Richard Hannon trained Ashwaq is a rightful favourite in this but she’s very short in the betting and isn’t unbeatable. It could be worth taking a chance on SPARKALOT for the Simon Dow team. The yard aren’t renowned for first time out winners but this son of Bated Breath could turn out to be a really nice type and is a fair price on debut. Essential is another with excellent claims for a yard that do very well here.

1 POCKET WARRIOR – Started life in a bumper at Huntingdon but has since switched to the flat and shown a very average level of ability. He’s 6 years old and has to give a lot of weight to much better rivals on form and breeding and it would be a very big surprise to see him win this now kept to 6 furlongs. Trainer has just one winner from 42 starts here.

2 ZERAFINO – Beaten 15 and 20 lengths respectively on two starts to date and is kept over C&D today which doesn’t inspire any confidence. He has started at 100/1 and 150/1 and he should have a similar SP here now giving weight away to better rivals. His trainer is profitable here (£12.50 to level stakes) but this would be one of his unlikeliest winners. Has been given an awful draw in stall 12.

3 NAPPING – Trainer has 4 winners from 45 runners here and she runs a racecourse debutant in this. She’s a 4yo filly by Sleeping Indian and she’s got plenty of speed in her pedigree so the trip should be perfect on debut. She’s unlikely to be ready first time out though although she could find herself prominent early on and is one to watch with a view to backing her in handicap company later in the year.

4 TILLY’S BRIDGE – Has shown little in two starts to date at Lingfield over 7 furlongs on both occasions. She looked green on both of those starts and she doesn’t look as if she’s progressing at the moment although a drop down to 6 furlongs may spark something of a revival. She’ll have to break well to get a good position from stall 1 and is one for handicaps later down the line.

5 DOUBLE DUTCH – Once-raced colt for John Quinn and was sold on for 8,500GNS in October of last year and he makes his racecourse debut for John Butler. He’s an unusual type for this yard who generally operate with handicappers and the betting should be informative about his chances today off a 327-day break. He’s by Dutch Art so could turn out to be a relatively decent type and is worth a second look in the market.

6 ESSENTIAL – 50,000GNS purchase as a yearling and was given a nice introduction to racing by Jamie Spencer at Chelmsford on his racecourse debut in February. He should have learnt a lot for that run and the booking of Oisin Murphy looks interesting here (3 winners last 34 rides) for a yard with 2 winners from their last 3 runners. They’re got a 22% strike rate at Kempton from 9 runners and he could be a threat here. One of the more likely winners in this.

7 HISAR – Second start today for a trainer out of form (no winners from his last 6 runners) and he was very well beaten on debut. He finished last of 14 and was beaten 15 lengths at Newbury back in July in a weak maiden and may have had some issues, now returning off a 256-day break. Connections reach for the hood here and the booking of Luke Morris is an obvious positive although his mount may just want another furlong or two. Best watched.

8 MISTER CHOW – Interesting profile having changed hands several times before making his racecourse debut. He was bought for 26,000GNS as a foal, sold on for 55,000GNS as a yearling but he then dropped badly in value to 13,000 Euros in May of last year as a 2yo. He’s been gelded since and Nathaniel has been a disappointing sire so far so he’s best watched here for a yard who send out few debutant winners.

9 SPARE PARTS – One of the more expensive types in the field having been bought for £75,000 as a yearling. He’s by Choisir and has been gelded and is perhaps best watched on debut for a yard that have been very quiet of late. He’s been drawn in stall 10 which isn’t ideal at all although he does have plenty of pace in his pedigree and this trip should prove ideal in time.

10 SPAKALOT – A really nice type bought for 120,000GNS as a 2yo and is by the excellent sprinter Bated Breath. He’s not been gelded and he could turn out to have a bit of class about him if he progresses like his sires progeny have done to date. The yard aren’t renowned for first time out winners but they have sent out a winner in the last 14 days and this horse (part owned by Harry Redknapp) is of interest here. Market support would be significant.

11 TOJOSIMBRE – Showed some promise on debut, running a tad green and looking outpaced but staying on to hold sixth. He should come on a lot for that experience and this Dark Angel gelding should do much better now for Richard Hughes now with the hood applied. He may appreciate an extra furlong in time and may just need this run to learn a bit more about the game but the yard are doing well of late and he’s worth a second look in the betting.

12 ASHWAQ – The most expensive purchase in this field, Richard Hannon’s 200,000 Euro filly is by Sepoy and has plenty of speed in her pedigree. She improved on her second start over C&D when just outgunned by half a length by a potentially decent sort. That race has produced a host of subsequent winners and the form looks rock solid. She’s been drawn in stall 9 which isn’t ideal and she has been off the track for 110 days so she’s not unbeatable but she should be even better here and is a major danger.