3.50pm Warwick Tips & Betting Preview 22/03/2017

A field of eight go to post for the fourth race of the day at Warwick on Wednesday, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: The Happy Chappy is likely to be popular as a ex Paul Nicholls recruit who hasn’t been disgraced in maidens and can improve for the step up in trip, but this looks likely to go to BRAW ANGUS. Upped in trip on handicap debut at Huntingdon his stamina won him the day when powering clear for a comfortable success and going up further in trip will just eek out even further improvement from Kim Bailey’s seven year old. He has a 9lb rise from that latest run but can easily overcome it under Tom Bellamy for another success.

1 THE HAPPY CHAPPY – Six year who has shown promise on both his starts under rules to date, finishing third on hurdling debut at Hereford in November and then ran another good race to finish third at Ludlow in February, only beaten around two lengths (2m 7f, Good to Soft). Should appreciate this step up in trip and is a likely improver on his third run for Sarah Humphrey. Jack Quinlan takes the ride and he looks set to go close, so has to be respected.

2 BARAYMI – Showed promise three starts ago when third at Fontwell on Boxing Day (2m 1f, Good to Soft) but hasn’t shown much on his last two runs for Jamie Snowden. He fell at Plumpton on his penultimate start when with a narrow lead and was well beaten at Sandown on his latest start, pulled up early on. He is however interesting upped in trip as he wasn’t running a bad race at Plumpton when upped in trip, still leading narrowly when coming down so could appreciate a trip of this length. Interesting place contender with Ciaran Gethings on board and with conditions to suit, he’s not one to discount.

3 BLACK NARCISSUS – Off the mark over fences on his penultimate start at Catterick in February (3m 1f, Soft) but ran out at Wincanton on his latest start, mounting a strong challenge at the time and she returns to hurdling. Hurdling mark is only two pounds higher than her chasing one and that previous effort would suggest that he is well handicapped off a mark of 107 if running to the same standard as his latest run. Conditions fine and a strong run is expected with Adam Wedge taking the ride, respected.

4 BRAW ANGUS – Showed little in maidens but sprung into life when upped in trip on handicap debut, winning at Huntingdon three weeks ago under today’s rider Tom Bellamy (2m 4f, Soft). Going up in trip will suit based upon that run and his pedigree, with today’s conditions likely to suit. A 9lb rise does make it tougher but he remains with potential for Kim Bailey will be able to improve sufficiently to take another victory.

5 THAT’S GOTTA STING – Record of one win from twelve doesn’t inspire much confidence and he’s ran two poor races the last twice, well beaten at Hereford on his latest start in a weak looking race (3m 1f, Good to Soft). Still 7lbh above his last winning mark and he’s likely to need it to slip down further if he’s to return to winning ways based on his last two runs. However, the Jeremy Scott yard have had three winners from their last three runners and Robert Hawker takes off a useful 7lb. Possible place claims but he’s risky.

6 GIVEITACHANCE – Last win came back in November 2015 off a 3lb higher mark but he’s been soundly out of form this year for Claire Dyson. On his latest start at Exeter (2m 7f, Soft) he was once again put in his place when sixth of seven, weakening tamely after the eight hurdle. Although he’s down to mark where he can be seen as well treated, as hasn’t shown nearly enough to suggest he can take advantage of it. He does stay the trip and conditions are to suit, but others make far more appeal and he can only be given slight place claims in this.

7 YOUNG LOU – Finished a creditable third at Hereford four starts ago at a comparable trip (3m 1f, Soft) but has struggled the last thrice, travelling well to a point on some of those starts but ultimately tailing off in tame fashion. Her latest start was no different when struggling from an early stage and there is no reason to suggest she’ll bounce back to form in similar conditions, despite a 5lb drop in the weights. Others readily preferred again.

8 THE MODEL COUNTY – Won well over C&D on his penultimate start in February when having far too much stamina for her rivals, forging clear on the run in to score going away. The handicapper did take a very firm stance on that effort though as she was raised 8lb, which could be seen as harsh and she immediately struggled on his latest start at Chepstow, tailing off (2m 7f, Soft). Granted, she’ll be happier going back up in trip, but a mark of 84 seems far too high for him and she looks vulnerable in this. Possible place claims if it’s an attritional race but others look more likely.

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