3.40pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 28/11/2017

1 MASQUERADE BLING – Recently moved from the Loughnane yard to Neil Mulholland and has his first run since finishing fifth over seven furlongs at Newcastle in late September. One run on the equitrack here saw a running on fourth over six furlongs and he has run well over this trip at Kempton, but he has four pounds more than his only win from twenty runs and with the stable going through a quiet patch he has his work cut out today.

2 AMERICAN PATROL – The second of the two Mulholland runners and although the same remarks apply to the form of the yard (out of sorts on the flat at least), the son of Rio De La Plata did win off only three pounds less at Wolverhampton in January. His eighteen length eleventh of thirteen over course and distance last time fails to impress and he may need to find an easier race if he wants to win a second time.

3 CANDESTA – One winner from just the three recent runners for the Julia Feilden stable but none in ten starts now for the seven-year-old since victory at Chelmsford in December last year off a rating of 62. Going backwards since he races off a more generous 55 here so is capable of winning this on his day but he was well beaten at Nottingham on the first of the month and needs to bounce back to nearer to his best to have any chance.

4 BELGRAVIAN – One of the top amateurs on board in Simon Walker which has to be seen as a huge bonus, and a winner over seven furlongs at Kempton in October when beating Warba by a couple of lengths. Put up three pounds he was well beaten next time at Chelmsford when upped to this mile and therein lies the issue, he doesn’t seem to stay this far which may yet be his downfall now as well.

5 MR ANDROS – Last seen in action a mere three days ago when eleventh at Lingfield but only four lengths off the winner despite weakening close home over seven furlongs. Hacked up in a lowly Class Seven at Chelmsford the race before but he has weakened badly late on on both attempts at a mile before and that has to be a concern again here on this slower and more testing surface.

6 GATILLO – In form lately with a fourth and two third spots in his last three starts but he is still a maiden after thirteen races and that has to be a concern for his supporters. He kept on well to be beaten two and a half lengths over seven furlongs at this track last time and is well worth another try at the mile now off the same rating under jockey Ross Birkett.

7 ROYAL RETTIE –Paddy Butler’s daughter of Royal Applause has had sixteen unsuccessful races so far for various trainers and is obviously proving more than hard to win with. She has had three wins on this surface and finished second in two of them (third in the other) suggesting she has a pretty decent each way shout this afternoon and runs off 54 less Michelle Bryant’s claim which seems a racing weight on picks of her form.

8 WIN LOSE DRAW – Top amateur Serena Brotherton rides the Michael Appleby trained Dark Angel gelding who has won once from his sixteen starts at Wolverhampton over seven furlongs in November last year. He weakened close home over a mile and a quarter at Chelmsford last time so the mile is unlikely to prove an issue and off a pound lower here he may well turn in to a major contender.

9 INGLEBY SPRING – Three wins from thirty-two starts stands out in this field but this is her first run on an all-weather surface and her ability to handle the track is an unknown quantity. She did win on good to soft going over ten furlongs at Redcar as recently as last month but she was beaten over six lengths off this mark last time out and needs to do better on this unusual and unique surface.

10 PINDARIC – Zero wins from thirteen starts so far for the three-year-old but almost pulled off a massive 20/1 shock at Redcar last time out when beaten a short head by Ingleby Spring and meets that rival on a pound worse terms here before jockey claims. Could be improving or that run may have been a one-off, and hard to make a strong case for on his overall form

11 FRANGARRY – Two wins from a total of thirty-two starts, one each on turf and the all-weather tanks to a success at Lingfield in May. That was over five furlongs so speed seems to be his strong point with his one try at this mile seeing him eased off once his chance has gone to be beaten eleven lengths at Chelmsford earlier this month, decent enough in this class but this may not be his best trip.

12 CLAYTON HALL – Twelve races since his last win over a mile and a quarter at Haydock in May 2016 and has tried hurdles once when falling at Cartmel. Beaten twenty-three lengths in a Claimer last time out at Redcar which followed a last of nine at Hamilton and he does seem woefully out of form and sure to struggle over this reduced trip.

13 PORT LAIRGE – Bottom weight for Michael Chapman’s seven-year-old who has won four races from fifty-four career starts but none from sixteen on the all-weather. He has never been successful beyond seven furlongs but has placed over even further here last December (eleven furlongs), and was only beaten three and a half lengths on soft ground at Brighton over this trip last time out off the same rating and could well sneak in to a place if repeating that effort here.

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