3.40pm Newbury Tips & Betting Preview 21/04/2017

This is an interesting filly’s maiden, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Sir Michael Stoute’s filly MORI has a gorgeous profile and she need only be half as good as her parents to win this. She’s by Frankel and out of a dam who was a multiple Group One winner and she should be tuned up on her racecourse debut today. Gracious Diana is of interest at a bigger price with plenty of progression to come this year whilst Inconceivable is another of interest that could outrun her odds.

1 CECILATOR – Very cheap purchase as a 2yo selling for just £1,500 and she’s by Delegator who was less than impressive in his short stud career. This stable rarely send out maiden runners let alone winners and it would be a big surprise to see her ready enough to strike at the first time of asking. Only the second time this yard have run one at Newbury. Others make more appeal.

2 CUBSWIN – Half-sister to a 12-race maiden and Roger Charlton’s filly was well-beaten on her sole start as a 2yo at Salisbury. She broke slowly, ran green and plugged on at a modest pace that day and the significant step up in trip to today’s 1m 2f distance will help. Needs to show more on her second career start and others have more appealing profiles.

3 FASHION THEORY – Charlie Appleby’s runner has a lovely pedigree and her dam improved from 2 to 3 so there’s plenty to suggest there’s more to come from this Dubawi filly. She was stepped up in trip at Doncaster last time out to a mile and ran to a reasonable level. She’ll do better over this longer trip and the yard have a 19% strike rate in the past fortnight so there is plenty to like about her chances.

4 FRESH FOX – Beaten out of sight last September, finishing last of 9, beaten 23 lengths over 7 furlongs. She finished behind Cubswin that day and she showed little to inspire confidence that she would improve to win a maiden. The yard have a respectable 12% strike rate here but they’ve struggled for a winner in the past fortnight and the presence of a claimer suggests she’s going to be up against it here. Will do better in handicaps.

5 GRACIOUS DIANA – Half-brother to Dandino who excelled over similar trips to this winning over a million in prize money and John Gosden’s runner is an interesting prospect here. She was bought for 65,000GNS and although struggling on debut she will have improved plenty for that run and the booking of Frankie Dettori catches the eye. The yard have a 28% strike rate in the past fortnight and she’ll be dangerous if she’s progressed from 2 to 3.

6 HAREBELL – Ralph Beckett’s filly was well-backed towards the end of last year, sent off the 9/4 joint-favourite before paying for her early exertions in the race. She’ll need to settle better here and stall 12 isn’t ideal but she’s clearly well-regarded and her profile suggests this step up in trip will be ideal for her. This is tougher than her Wolverhampton maiden but she should have improved and has a lively chance.

7 INCONCEIVABLE – Second runner in this for Ralph Beckett and she’s a fascinating full-sister to Eye Of The Storm and a half-sister to some lovely staying types. She’s by Galileo and should relish this extra distance on just her second start, having found things happening slightly too quickly on her debut. She stayed on eye-catchingly that day and the extra 2 furlongs will be ideal here. Decent chance of improvement in this.

8 MANY WATERS – Two runs as a 3yo and she’s one of the only runners in this with race fitness on her side. She finished a neck behind Wefait on her last start and the form has been boosted since with a winner from one of the runners in behind that day. She should come on again for that back on the turf and Jamie Spencer is on board for the first time today. Another with a solid looking chance and she should know her job.

9 MIRZAM – 45,000 Euro purchase and she finished sixth of thirteen in a hot York maiden at the end of last year. She weakened late on that day having just found the experience too much but she should have learnt plenty and she should relish today’s trip given she’s a daughter of Mastercraftsman. The yard have a very poor 4% strike rate here (7 winners from 163 runners) and others make more appeal.

10 MISS LIGURIA – Half-sister to some nice staying sorts and she’s a daughter of super-sire Galileo. She’s not been seen before so she’s obviously needed plenty of time and if her pedigree is anything to go by, she should improve for today’s outing when sent over 1m 4f. The yard have sent out 3 winners from 28 runners here and others make more appeal on debut.

11 MORI – One of the most impressive pedigrees you’ll find, by Frankel out of a mare that achieved an official rating of 121 at her peak winning a host of Group One races. On paper she’s the one they all have to beat and it’ll be interesting to see how she fares for a yard that send out maiden runners that generally need their first run. She could be special though and the market should guide best. Respected.

12 NAFAAYES – Another with an excellent pedigree by Sea The Stars out of an un-raced mare. She’ll relish this trip for a yard that can get one ready first time out and she’s partnered by Jim Crowley who’s riding to a 20% strike rate of late whilst the stable have a 23% strike rate in the past fortnight. Stall 13 is far from ideal and the market should guide best on her chances.

13 STAR ROCK – Twice-raced filly as a 2yo over a mile at Kempton and at Newbury. That course experience is crucial and she should progress plenty for the extra distance here given she’s by Fastnet Rock and her dam’s sire is Galileo. Plenty to like given there should be plenty of progression although she may need this run off a seasonal break. Others make more appeal but she would be feared with market support.

14 THE JEAN GENIE – 48,000GNS yearling purchase and she steps up to a mile and two furlongs today on her second career start. She stayed on over a mile at Haydock last September to finish second behind a decent enough sort and she should come on plenty for that experience. The ground may be slightly on the firm side here but the yard have been in excellent form of late (33% strike rate) and she should attract market support.

15 ZEHRAH – 65,000GNS purchase and she makes her third start today having raced twice on the All-Weather this year. She was just out-gunned last time out at Chelmsford over today’s trip and should come on for that having looked green and slightly keen at times for a yard that have sent out 3 winners from their last 5 runners. Silvestre De Sousa retains the ride and she has the benefit of race fitness.

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