3.30pm Newcastle Tips & Betting Preview 11/01/2017

Only five line up for this Class 3 Conditions Stakes for 3 year olds only run over 1m at Newcastle in the feature race this afternoon. Read on for our expert’s thoughts and betting tips.

IN SUMMARY: Mailshot is likely to take them along in this and Mark Johnston excels with these front running types but he could be taken on for the lead and this could make him vulnerable to BRITANNIC. Despite showing experience in his maiden win last time out, he ran with plenty of credit in the later stages to get up to win by a ½ length from a more experienced rival. There should be more to come from this well bred colt now trying a mile and he could be tough to beat with that run under his belt.

1 Ay Ay – A £150,000 purchase in October 2015, was a winner on debut two weeks ago when travelling well before just getting up. Runner up was more experienced but only rated 72 and a five race maiden so will need to step forward significantly for that. Likely he will but lack of early market confidence worrying given support on debut and Brittanic’s debut form looks stronger.

2 Britannic – Excelebration colt who didn’t start well on debut over 7f at this course last month but quickly got the hang of things and looked useful in winning by a ½ length from a horse who had already won previously, with the pair nicely clear (3rd and 7th have won and 5th finished runner up since). Looks to have plenty more in the tank given his inexperience and should improve for the experience now stepped up in trip given how he travelled last time out. Big chance of backing up debut win with the yard recording a strike rate 35% in the last fortnight (6 from 17).

3 Mailshot – Made all to win a 6f Novice event at Kempton in June (runner up now rated 79) and after two competitive runs in better company has a rating of 90. Placed off that mark at Wolves last time out and has shown a liking for the All Weather surface on two previous attempts. However, looks more exposed than a number of others here and strike rate of 2 in 8 is off putting, especially as he shown a tendency to hang right in the past.

4 Mr Scaramanga – Previously with Richard Hannon but sold after two poor efforts for 90,000 guineas. Previously placed in a competitive Newbury maiden and had a mark of 99 but only just won a Lingfield maiden from a horse rated 70 last time out. Needs to step up markedly on that effort here and two All Weather runs have been average so the surface is a worry, as is trainer’s strike rate in the last two weeks (one runner up from 11 runners).

5 Mums The Word – Filly who is still without a win after eight runs. Highly tried in November and ran reasonably in a French Listed race but finished second in a weak Course & Distance maiden last time out and doesn’t appear to deserve rating of 80 on form shown so far. Will need to run far above that to win today so easy to write off. May find a win over this distance in weaker company but only when handicap mark drops further.

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