3.30pm Chepstow Tips & Betting Preview 06/06/2017

A double figure field are all set to go to post for this six furlong handicap where the winner will walk away with close to £5,000 before deductions and without a last time out winner in the field there may well be some value to be found. Read on below for our tips and a detailed betting preview horse by horse!

IN SUMMARY: An interesting sprint but it looks as if the rains have come just in time for SIR BILLY WRIGHT (each way) to be able to show his best, and there is little doubt that he is well weighted if he can be brought back to his better form. Apprentice Katherine Glenister takes seven pounds off his back and is in the form of her life, and at the prices he looks rock solid each way value. Munfallet has been well backed and won’t be far away, while Dandy Flame is another who could go well for the Richard Hughes yard.

1 MUNFALLET – Despite being officially the best horse and thus allocated joint top weight it needs to be added that the David Brown stable are struggling for winners with just the one from eighteen runners in the last fourteen days for a below expectations 6% success rate. As for the six-year-old son of Royal Applause, a course and distance winner in August 2016, he has been dropped a single pound after finishing a seven and a half length fifth to Naggers at Thirsk in a slightly better race and did beat Blaine a short head at Haydock off this rating in October last year so cannot be dismissed, though he will need a season’s best to get involved in the finish.

2 CINCUENTA PASCOS – Five wins from thirty-four starts is not a bad record for a sprint handicapper but his best efforts have been over seven furlongs and not the six he faces today. Although it now seems as if he will get the soft ground that he seems to prefer these days he still seems to have more against him than for him, though he is another who has won off his current mark which suggests he could well run on in to the places through tiring horses here.

3 ENGLISHMAN – Trainer Milton Bradley is more than a little bit handy when it comes to training sprinters and although the seven-year-old is not as good as he once was, he could still surprise today. He has won off a mark as high as 88 (rated 83 today) and at up to Class two level so this is not beyond him if he was at his best, though he did win a Class Three at Windsor in May and should still go well. Last time out he was beaten two and a half lengths at Goodwood over this trip when perhaps left with a bit too much to do by Joe Fanning, but if David Probert (who rode him to win at Windsor) can keep him a little handier here, he may well make the first three home.

4 SIR BILLY WRIGHT – Katherine Glenister rides the David Evans trained gelding and although perhaps not a household name, she has ridden nine winners from ninety rides in the last five seasons for a very respectable 10% strike rate. With two winners from five rides in the last two weeks and a level stakes profit of a big 17 points she is clearly good value for her seven pound claim while the stable are also doing well with a 12% strike rate and 13 points of profit in the same period. The horse hasn’t won in five races now with a poor eighth of ten to Major Pusey at Windsor with no obvious excuses but with the connections stats suggesting he has a better chance today and the rain coming in time to make conditions ideal, he has to step up to the top of the list at these prices.

5 GINZAN – Trainer Malcom Saunders seems to be struggling with zero winners from just the six runners in the last two weeks which has to reduce the chances of Ginzan here. This will be his first run since the first of October when a gallant sixth in a Class Two at Newmarket just two lengths behind winner Summer Chorus, but his record first time out reads 248417 and he seems likely to get harder to get fit at home at the age of nine. Best watched for now but had the ability to win this in the past.

6 VINCENTTI – The second course and distance winner engaged here but without a win since that victory in September last year, a run of six losing and unplaced efforts. His last two races have been especially disappointing with a last of five at Bath and a last of seven at Chelmsford and off the same rating of 75 this afternoon it is difficult to make much of a case for the Ronald Harris sprinter.

7 EQUALLY FAST –Four wins from twenty-seven starts but just the one from nineteen on the turf with a Windsor victory over five furlongs in September 2015. Elven runs without a win now have seen his rating come down from 84 after his Windsor win to 73v this afternoon but a sixteenth of twenty at Ascot (beaten fourteen and a half lengths) does not bode well for his supporters, and he has only been dropped two pounds for that poor effort.

8 SATCHVILLE FLYER – looks to be the David Evans first string with Fran Berry booked to ride but that could be inaccurate and he will need to be at his very best to win today. Elven runs without a win since Ffos Las in September last year have seen his weight come down to amore sensible mark and his each way record here is exemplary with five runs producing one win, a second, a third, and two fourth places and he does seem to save his best for here.

9 DANDY FLAME – One of the younger generation here at the tender age of three and open to a lot more improvement than most after just the fourteen starts. Already in the care of his third trainer now, he started off with Jose Santos where he won his maiden but blossomed with William Haggas winning three on the bounce, with a class five handicap at Wolverhampton followed by claimers at Lingfield and then Wolverhampton. Moved on to Richard Hughes after his latest win he has had three runs for the ex jockey so far with a solid two length third to Scorching heat at Salisbury last time out over this trip on good to soft going and with Shane Kelly in the addle today a market watch could be interesting to see if the money is down.

10 BONJOUR STEVE – Bottom weight for the Richard Price trained six-year-old but that still means eight stone nine which is four pounds more than he ought to carry according to the handicapper. That obviously leaves him with a lot more to do than is ideal though Mitch Godwin does take five pounds back off his back and he did finish a decent enough third at Nottingham last time out over the minimum trip of five furlongs, leading one out before being beaten a length at the line. He has won over five six and seven furlongs so the trip is not an issue, and on soft ground as well and may not be as out of this as it seems at first glance, even if the stable are none for five in the last fortnight.

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