3.20pm Southwell Tips & Betting Preview 09/03/2017

This is an intriguing race over 7 furlongs, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: Mick Appleby’s Bounty Pursuit has an obvious chance today but he’s up in grade and looks rather short in the betting. It could be worth taking a chance on ELUSIVITY. He’s certainly not the force of old although he still retains plenty of ability and he may be overlooked in this at a fair price. Stall 1 is perfect and if Paul Mulrennan can make plenty of use of him he may be able to serve it up to the opposition here. Dark Profit is also worthy of a market check now returning off a long break.

1 ELUSIVITY – Trainer is without a winner in the last 14 days although his runner here isn’t without a chance. He’s been in good form recently with a victory and two other competitive efforts. He has paid the price for his good form, he’s now 4lbs higher than his last winning mark although that’s still a fair bit lower than what he was racing off last year. Today’s trip is a real question mark having been campaigned over 5 and 6 furlongs although his mark looks workable and he can save plenty of ground with an excellent draw in stall 1.

2 BOOTS AND SPURS – Scott Dixon has had a poor season by his standards and is without a win in his last 12 attempts but his runner has a fair chance today. He’s been really busy this winter with 10 runs since November and he’s been thereabouts having only been beaten a few lengths over this C&D in the process. The handicapper has him where he wants him although he was competitive off this mark on his last start and can’t be discounted. However, his yards form is very poor and others look likelier today for a horse without a win in 17 starts.

3 HARWOODS STAR – Hasn’t been in the winner’s enclosure since March last year but did run creditably off just 1lb higher over a furlong shorter in December. He clearly enjoys the fibresand and goes well on it but there is a question mark regarding the trip with all of his 5 career wins coming over 5 or 6 furlongs. He’s worth opposing again today on the back of that although he’s not the worst handicapped in the field.

4 MACHO MAC – Hughie Morrison has a fair strike rate at Lingfield (18%, 13-71) but his runner was badly punished by the handicapper when hacking up over C&D in December. He was raised 13lbs for that effort and has obviously found life tougher since although he did post a good effort in the first time hood. He’s down 1lb today and he’s liable to bounce back to form although the handicapper is probably still in charge and stall 9 makes things difficult. The booking of Fran Berry does take the eye though, interesting.

5 DARK PROFIT – Was picked up for a sizeable 30,000GNS in October of 2015 but hasn’t been seen since and arrives here off a 506 day break. This nicely bred Dark Angel gelding should be a good bit of fun for connections but the step up to 7 furlongs here looks questionable having scored over 5 furlongs and looked stretched over today’s distance on fast surfaces. Shirley Teasdale claims 5lbs and he’s probably not on a terrible mark although he may just need this and it could pay to look elsewhere.

6 BOUNTY PURSUIT – Mick Appleby has produced wonders with this horse having recorded two placed efforts and two wins from 4 starts with him. He hadn’t shown much prior to that in France and is obviously on the upgrade and he’s kept to Southwell today although stepped up in trip by a furlong. That shouldn’t be an issue and his last win probably looked a tad harder than it really was and the handicapper has given him a chance again today now only raising him 4lbs. This will definitely take some improvement now upped in grade but he’s still well-treated at the weights and the draw is very kind to him. Obvious chances.

7 GREYFRIARSCHORISTA – Prolific around here back in day with his last win coming over C&D back in February of last year. He’s not getting any younger and has begun to really slip down the weights to today’s mark of 63 which still looks slightly on the high side. He was beaten over 4 lengths over today’s C&D on his last start and whilst he could pop up at any moment he’s an unreliable sort now he’s vulnerable to any improvers. Best watched today.

8 NAPOLEON SOLO – C&D winner three starts ago and remains on the same mark today having not had much luck at Newcaslte and Wolverhampton since. That was his first career success but his overall record still looks poor now just scoring once in 16 attempts. He cannot be ruled out in this given he remains on the same mark but everything will have to fall into place and he may not be able to get the lead today from a bad draw in stall 10. Others make more appeal.

9 SWILLY SUNSET – This Kyllachy gelding was bought for 10,000GNS in October and makes his first start for Anthony Carson today. He’s only raced four times and did record a victory over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton although he hasn’t been seen since November 2015 and obviously has some issues. The trip is obviously fine but it’s tricky to know what to expect today and he may just need this on his first run back for 482 days although market support would be significant.

10 HAMMER GUN – 4yo gelding that’s going backwards for new connections. Showed some promise for Sir Michael Stoute at the very beginning of his 2yo career but hasn’t built on that and was beaten out of sight last winter. Very hard to expect a turnaround in form from this regressive type today off just 5lbs lower.

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