3.20pm Leicester Tips & Betting Preview 30/05/2017

A cracking three year old handicap for fillies over seven furlongs. There are a number in here who look well up to gaining black type this season, so it should be a strong form guide as the year progresses. Read on for our runner by runner preview and tip.

IN SUMMARY: Parlance is likely to step up on what she showed last season, in 2017. A stunningly bred filly, she should be taking black type later in the year, that would make her dangerous providing she is ready to go first time. Cheval Blanche and Phalaborwa both look likely types who were impressive winners last time out when making all the running but the vote goes to CASHLA BAY. Still entered in the Coronation Stakes in just three weeks time, she would need to put in a phenomenal performance to justify that entry but a mark of 81 looks on the light side given her huge potential.

1 ARWA – Very highly tried last time out, when beaten a little over five lengths in the Fred Darling at Newbury. That effort in a Group 3 has seen an extra five pounds added to her mark now that she is back in a handicap. She last ran at this level in September, when sixth in a Newmarket nursery. If her Fred Darling form can be taken at face value, a mark of 87 might not be enough to stop her, but on the balance of most of her efforts, she looks too high in the weights.

2 CHEVAL BLANCHE – Progressive so far in 2017 with a pair of wins already from just the three starts. She was a little keen early on at Salisbury when last seen in a 0-90 but Lulu Stanford let her get on with it from the front and she fairly ran the field into the ground from the front. She has a nine pound hike in the weights to contend with now, but given the visual impression she made in that contest, it may not be enough to stop her if she is able to dominate from the front again.

3 JULE IN THE CROWN – Highly tried last year following a Windsor win when performing with credit in a Sandown Listed race before outclassed (as the majority of the field were) behind Lady Aurelia in the Queen Mary. She made a promising return at Pontefract over six furlongs behind Brian The Snail, staying on well up the hill to grab second. The step up to this trip should have suited her on that performance, but when she tried this seventh furlong at Newbury, she was well seen off. Has a little to prove over this trip now.

4 PARLANCE – Beautifully bred filly, her dam is a half sister to Kingman (who like Parlance is by Invincible Spirit), her Grand-dam, a half sister to Oasis Dream. She ran poorly on her only turf start so far, although that was on her debut and can be excused, her improvement was eyecatching in a pair of all weather outings in the Autumn. Likely to prove very popular in the market as all Sir Michael Stoute handicap debutantes are but more of his improve for a second handicap than don’t and she may just need this first outing of 2017.

5 PAVILLION – A perfect 2/2 start to her career goes on the line, as she makes her turf debut. She did well to overcome greenness to land her Kempton debut over six furlongs before winning from the back at Chelsmford (which isn’t always the easiest place to win from behind) over a mile. The step down in trip shouldn’t inconvenience her too much given the straight track but a draw widest of all on a track where she will face undulations for the first time does raise a few question marks.

6 BAHAMADAN – Another to be highly tried since making a Windsor winning debut, she ran respectably in the face of those stiff tasks without really progressing. The Eve Johnson-Houghton yard are ticking over nicely at present and she won first time up as a juvenile, but this looks a deep enough race for her 2017 reappearance.

7 CASHLA BAY – Backed off the boards as if defeat were out of the question when scoring at Newmarket at the back end of October. She was keen enough in the early stages there but kept enough in reserve to put the race to bed in stylish fashion when popped the question. John Gosden said afterwards ” She’s a very likeable filly and with her size I am pleased to have got two runs into her. I like her” she has the scope to progress well as a three year old and the runner up has scored twice since, including off a mark just two pounds lower than Cashla Bay runs off here. She is still entered in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in just over three weeks time so evidently is held in some regard and we take that hint from a lenient looking mark of 81.

8 PHALABORWA – Looked in need of the experience on Newmarket debut, shaping well late on when the penny began to drop. She made no mistake on her second start on the Polytrack at Kempton, able to jump and travel she made every yard of the running to land a more comfortable win than the three quarter length margin suggests on paper. She held an entry in the Group 2 Rockfel at the time of her Kempton win so any confidence behind her in the market would make her of interest.

9 BROGAN – Took a little while to get off the mark as a juvenile, picking up a non stayer on her fourth attempt over this trip at Haydock. She shaped as if she would come on for the run on her 2017 debut, just fading out of things late on up the hill at Beverley. A win off this mark certainly looks in her future but whether she is capable of taking a step up in class as well to this level remains to be seen.

10 SAYEM – Ed Walker’s filly makes her turf debut here, having run three times on the sand. She broke her duck at Lingfield shortly before Christmas, returning with a sound effort at 33/1 over the same course and distance earlier in May. Not much went right for her that day after missing the break, she plugged on at one pace down the outside despite being hampered and can be marked up slightly for the effort. That was in a Class 4 so whether she will be good enough here remains to be seen.

11 RELY ON ME – A long way behind Cashla Bay on debut, she showed plenty of improvement to make all the running at Doncaster on her second start. “One to look forward to next season” was trainer Andrew Balding’s assessment of her and she showed promise despite looking like she would come on for the run at Chelmsford on her return. That was over a mile but she has a nice draw to work from close to the stands rail if connections want to make this a good test at the trip.

12 RUTHERFORD – Got off the mark at the fifth time of asking at Newcastle last time out, sent off the 8/11 favourite for a maiden over this trip. She was second in a maiden over this course and distance in October with experience of these undulations is at least a small plus point for backers. She doesn’t really appear to be improving however and would need to take a step forward to get competitive.

13 FASTNET SPIN – Much more exposed that the majority of this field, she has struggled to get competitive in lesser races so far in 2017. Due to run at Leicester on Monday, it would be a surprise if she were to get involved at the business end of this one.

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