3.20pm Ascot Tips & Betting Preview 28/07/2017

A Listed contest for fillies and mares on the round mile, a field of ten chasing a first prize of over £36,000. Our expert tip and runner by runner guide to the race is below.

IN SUMMARY: Nathra is the one to beat both on form and official ratings. She has won fresh both in 2015 and 2016 so the lack of a run may not be a huge concern, but she is up against some smart fillies. Golden Stunner was runner up at Group 3 level last time out, she will be a danger if she isn’t taken on for the lead. Mittens is rapidly improving and needs respect but the vote goes to PIROUETTE. She has run well at this level of late and although she has a little to find on official ratings, first time headgear can allow her to do exactly that.

1 GOLDEN STUNNER – Took a long time to break her duck, once she did, she progressed well through the handicap ranks last season. She has taken her form to a new level this year, runner up at both Listed and Group 3 level. She is ground adaptable, showing her best form when she is able to dominate but she faces a couple here who like to get on with things as well.

2 MATERIALISTIC – Connections spent most of 2016 trying to turn her into a ten furlong horse, running better this season the twice she has been back at this trip. She has never been the strongest in a finish so it’s interesting that first time cheekpieces are fitted in an attempt to allow her to see her effort through. Has an each way chance if they work.

3 NATHRA – Officially the one to beat on ratings, she has not been seen in action since September at Newmarket. Fifth in the 1000 Guineas last season and second in the French equivalent, she sets the clear form standard. She has won on her first start in both years she has been racing so fitness shouldn’t be a concern and this is a significant drop in class for her, huge player.

4 PIROUETTE – Hasn’t won since last July, but has acquitted herself with credit at this level since. Two seconds and two thirds in Listed class give her a big each way chance, especially if first time blinkers can produce a little more improvement from her. She has a few pounds to find with the principals but will be suited by any drying of the ground and looks considerably overpriced.

5 REBEL SURGE – By far the most exposed runner in the line-up, her latest win was in a Class 4 handicap. A difficult horse to win with, this looks far too tough for her, booked for a struggle.

6 MITTENS – Rapid improver for Sir Michael Stoute, she has twice torn handicaps to shreds this month. It was only a four runner field she beat on the first occasion, but the way she shrugged off an eight pound rise at this track last time was impressive. That was only a Class 3 from a mark of 87 so this is tougher, but she could be called the winner from a long way out on that occasion, cantering all over the opposition. Strictly has a bit to find at the weights but such has been her rate of improvement, she is still a contender.

7 ON HER TOES – Consistent performer at this level, she scored in a Listed race at Sandown last August. She has no ground preference, adaptable on both quick and soft ground and equally at home over seven and eight furlongs. She lacks the scope of a couple in her age group, but she should run her usual honest race once more.

8 TISBUTADREAM – Has gone from the front in the past, a draw in 9 outside a fellow front runner inside her in Golden Stunner looks a big negative. She won a Listed contest at Sandown last time, when able to get a soft time of things on the front end. That is unlikely here but she has a great attitude, improving all season to this point.

9 URBAN FOX – Starting to look a little exposed despite only being a three year old. She never looked comfortable on the track at Epsom last time when well behind Tisbutadream with connections now reaching for first time blinkers. She is arguably better over seven furlongs and on genuinely quick ground, so she has plenty on her plate.

10 WHISPERING BELL – Another who has won when making all the running, she ripped apart a Windsor maiden when last seen. Kieran Shoemark gave her a smart ride that day, keen early, he allowed her to stride on, never seeing another rival. Given a mark of 89 on the back of that , she could have been found a far softer follow up race that this. John Gosden is always a man to respect when stepping fillies up in class so she has to be considered.

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