3.15pm Newbury Tips & Betting Preview 21/07/2017

Only one running so far which was won by Michael Bell’s Purple Magic at odds of 7/1 with Ed Greatrex in the saddle but this year’s renewal looks seriously competitive with just the fifteen pounds covering all ten runners according to official ratings. Our race preview is set out for you below giving you all you need to know ahead of the 3.15pm at Newbury this afternoon.

IN SUMMARY: A competitive handicap but Sir Mark Prescott may have the edge here and has got MELINOE (Each Way) in here off bottom weight. Improving slowly as she is stepped up in distance she has solid each way chances at a price and can hold off all comers this afternoon.

1 JELLY MONGER – Top weight of ten stone for the oldest horse in the race at five, but she has placed in two of her four runs this season including a second at Chelmsford when a neck behind winner Langlauf and when a length and a quarter ahead of Notice who she meets today on a pound better terms. Those backing David Simcock;’s filly must surely have a saver on the daughter of Strategic Prince here who is trained by Dominic Ffrench Davis who is sadly short on winners with none from six runners in the last two weeks.

2 FIRE JET – Nine races in a row with a top four finish now for the daughter of Ask which includes wins at Newmarket, Windsor, and Nottingham. Last time out she finished a well beaten fourth when failing to handle the softer ground at Doncaster but she ought to be far happier on this better surface and won’t be far away again under in-form jockey Silvestre De Sousa who is riding out of his skin again with a 15% strike rate in the last two weeks.

3 ST MARY’S – Won on her seasonal debut under young William Cox over a mile and a half plus at Chester but found the added five pounds from the handicapper beyond her when running below expectations at the same track next time out, to be beaten seventeen lengths at the line back in eighth. That was just too bad to be true and she may well be the sort who goes best fresh, but young William is back in the plate today (Oisin Murphy rode her last time), and with his seven-pound claim in place she ought to do at least a little better here.

4 NOTICE – Two third places this season for David Simcock’s filly who is a daughter of New Approach out of a Dr Fong mare who seems to have a lot more stamina than her breeding suggests at first glance. After a one paced third on her return over a mile and a half at Goodwood in similar grade she was stepped up to a little further than this at Chelmsford in a Class Two last month where she finished third again, beaten a length and a half by Langlauf. If she can repeat that run today off the same rating, she looks to have a solid chance.

5 ADMIRAL’S SUNSET – The only horse here to have won over this trip after scoring on her return at Barth in lesser company by five lengths which saw her put up a big nine pounds. She has run twice since with a fourth to Dance King over a mile and three last time just a length away from winning, and if she can repeat that over this trip she is not out of this by any stretch of the imagination for the in-form (17%) Hughie Morrison stable and jockey William Buick.

6 RENFREW STREET – You can never write off a Mark Johnston horse regardless though the daughter of Iffraaj needs to improve on her fifth to Corton Lad at Hamilton when she was last seen in May. Beaten five lengths that day she weakened quickly over the mile and five and isn’t really sure to get home this afternoon on that evidence and may well need to come down in the weights a few pounds before we see her back in the winners’ enclosure.

7 MISTRESS QUICKLY – Well backed in the early markets, Pat Dobbs rides the Ralph Beckett trained filly who has won a class five handicap at Newmarket over a mile and a half from her six starts to date. Last time out she finished a four and a quarter length fifth to Zenon over this sort of trip at Haydock in a better race but didn’t appear to get home, and if they go too fast today she may run out of stamina. The yard are merely ticking over at 10% and others appeal a bit more, especially at the prices.

8 FLIGHT OF FANTASY – One win and three places from the five starts so far this season for this three-year-old filly who is trained by Harry Dunlop. Last time she finished half a length second to Takbeer here over this course and distance and she has been left on the same rating today which suggests she has a decent chance. Sadly the stable are out of form with zero winners from ten runners in the last two weeks which has to count against her, but if she remains in good heart she won’t be far away.

9 SURE TO EXPLORE – George Wood takes three pounds off the back of the only runners here to win last time out and William Muir’s filly is not without a chance at these weights. Two runs so far have seen a debut fourth over a mile and a half when an unfancied 20/1 shot, but then took her maiden by half a length over the same trip, driven out to vet the upper hand at the line. Her first handicap rating of 77 looks reasonable for a horse with room for improvement and with Dane O’Neill saying after her winning run that Sure To Explore didn’t mind the ground, quickened up well and stayed nicely”, her supporters must be hopeful about the added distance today.

10 MELINOE – Bottom weight for Sir Mark Prescott’s filly and that must strike fear in to bookmakers the World over. Still a maiden after four starts and slowly stepping up in trip with a two and a half length fourth over a mile and a half at Doncaster last time out. She kept on at one pace that day suggesting she may do even better upped to this trip and with Hollie Doyle taking three pounds of her back she has to arrive here with a sporting chance.

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