3.10pm Wolverhampton Tips & Betting Preview 05/04/2017

This is an interesting 1m 4f contest at Wolverhampton, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: The step up in trip could work wonders for KING OSWALD and he could be overpriced here. His career record of one win from 16 starts isn’t great, but he’s been subject to strong market support on his last three starts and this extra distance can bring out some improvement. Smiley Bagel is the obvious threat but he’s got another rise in the weights to deal with and there may be value in opposing him today.

1 LADY CLITICO – Without a win since June 2015 and has been beaten sizeable distances in handicaps both on the flat and over obstacles. She’s dropped down the handicaps as a result from marks in the 70’s down to today’s 65 which should make her more competitive here than when beaten 4 1/2 lengths at Newcastle over 1m 2f on his last start. Yard have had a recent winner and do relatively well here (13%).

2 SMILEY BAGEL – Racked up a hat-trick of wins on his last three starts and he has been raised from a mark of 49 to today’s 63. He’s been given a small break since the last of those runs and he’s likely to be popular here for a yard with an excellent 20% strike rate here. Won cosily last time out so there could be even more to come and he remains in Class 6 company so he’s highly respected here.

3 KING OSWALD – One success from 16 starts which came over shorter. He steps up in trip today for the first time and he’s 4lbs higher than his last winning mark which doesn’t look too much of an issue. Has been well-backed on his last three starts so connections clearly feel there is more to come and he could be a threat here if the step up in trip brings out any amount of improvement. Respected.

4 POUR L’AMOUR – Nine runs without victory but she had a tough assignment last time out, finishing second behind a very well-handicapped rival. She can be upgraded for that effort over C&D and she should build on that as she remains in Class 6 company off the same mark for a yard that have sent out two winners from their last six runners. One of interest at the bigger prices and market should be revealing.

5 INNOKO – Dual-code performer who’s now 2lbs lower than his last success on the flat. That came in a 1m 2f contest at Chepstow in a better grade than this so there’s certainly potential for a better showing here than when well-beaten at Newcastle last time out. Yard have got an average 10% strike rate here and they’ve sent out just one winner from their last 22 runners. Others make more appeal here.

6 DEMBABA – Five runs to date for Michael Wigham and he’s switched to Gordon Elliott’s yard which is an interesting move. He’s been well-beaten in all starts to date on the flat and he’s stepped up in trip significantly here to 1m 4f. That’s an interesting move given his sire has produced more speedier types than stayers but it’s unlikely to be a strong pace here. He’s 3lbs lower than his last mark and blinkers are applied for the first time so there are positive angles.

7 INFLEXIBALL – 15-race maiden but she’s improved of late and has shown consistent form off just 1lb higher. She was beaten 1 1/2 lengths on her last start when finishing fourth under Clifford Lee and although she loses her rider’s claim, she does receive the experience of Franny Norton. Yard have had a well-backed winner recently and she should progress again at this longer trip but others have more attractive profiles.

8 FRAP – Last victory came off 3lbs higher than this and he’s been inconsistent for his current yard having run an excellent race between two very poor efforts. He finished fourth, beaten 1 length in February over 2 1/2 furlongs shorter than today’s trip off this mark and that form isn’t the worst in this field. He couldn’t uphold his form on his next start and it’s hard to know what to expect here. Others make more appeal although he should be capable in this grade.

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