3.10pm Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 08/07/2016

Some really interesting three-year-olds have been declared for this filliies only handicap for our race preview to consider, and we’ve gone for a horse who we’ve previously tipped to run far better and hopefully land us a big price winner.

Alsaaden is that horse, running poorly when tipped previously at Chester when seeming to disike the ground, but we’re confident that Good to Firm will suit today and make the difference. She came into that Chester race having finished 2nd in a Fillies’ Handicap at the same track two weeks before, having been only narrowly beaten by an in form horse in Secret Hint. That form looks solid and the way she battled that day suggests that the step up in trip to 7 furlongs as well as the switch to a galloping track may suit her nicely. Paul Hanagan is showing a £12 profit to £1 stakes for his 204 rides at Newmarket and she’s a half sister to Brioniya, twice placed in Listed company in France.

Switching our race preview’s attention to less exposed horses, Permission is one of the most interesting in the race. She bolted up on her only outing to date over a mile, putting an easy four lengths between herself and nearest challenger Raven’s Corner. Considering the daughter of Authorized was sent off at 14/1 and that the stable’s horses invariably need a run to put them straight, that was pretty impressive stuff, and she deserves to be near to the top of the market this afternoon as far as we can see. A mark of 90 appears fair but not overly generous, and this is a big step up in class against plenty of horses with more experience.

Heading the market is Aristocratic for Joe Fanning and Sir Michael Stoute, despite being a four race maiden. She’s finished in the places in each of of her starts so far and has been put up just two pounds for a narrow defeat last time out by a horse which has won twice since, including a Listed handicap off 95. How much that winner had in hand is a big question though, and while Stoute’s charge could be thrown in off a mark of 79 it’s hard to take the form line literally given she’s been a beaten 5/4 favourite twice already.

William Haggas is a force to reckon with these days and has some really nice horses to go to war with this season with Sainted potentially very well weighted on what has been seen so far, and with a lot more to offer over the months ahead. The going may be her main issue with both her two wins from three starts on ground with plenty of cut in it, a Doncaster maiden in Heavy and a Soft ground handicap last month which she took very easily indeed. A seven pound rise from the handicapper won’t help her cause but she does seem to be getting better with every race and all the added experience. We expect she may find one or two too good today, stepped up from Class 4 contents.

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