3.05pm Kempton Tips & Betting Preview 27/11/2017

1 LE DAUPHIN – Plenty of weight for a horse without a win this season following a nineteen length fifth to Early Retirement at Southwell at the end of October. Dropped two pounds for that effort over two and a half miles he steps up to three miles this afternoon for the first time and if the added half-mile brings improvement he may well get involved in the finish for the Nicky Henderson stable who remain in great form with twelve winners from forty-eight runners recently for a 25% strike rate.

2 GOOD MAN PAT – Very lightly raced for trainer Alan King with just the four starts so far, two in point to points and two in novice hurdles with a length second to Linenhall at Stratford over shorter last time out. It is interesting that connections send him in to handicap company when there are far easier pickings to be found in maiden or novice company, with the assumption that they feel he is well handicapped all too obvious here.

3 VOLCANIC – Four wins from twenty-three starts over hurdles now, the latest of them at Bangor in December 2015, ten races ago. Donald McCain’s gelding has hit a top three place in five of those runs so all is not completely lost and all his recent runs have been over this sort of trip and he will need to do better than his third at Plumpton to get involved here after over fourteen months off the track.

4 RIGHT OF REPLY – Bought for £70,00 after winning a Hexham maiden hurdle the six-year-old Presenting gelding will have his first run for Dan Skelton this afternoon and has to show plenty of improvement off a rating of 118 after a six-month break. That mark seems more than high enough judged on a twelve-length beating of Hawkhurst (who is now rated 102 and gave him five pounds that day), and although he may well go on for his new stable he has it all to do at these weights on paper at least.

5 ROYALRAISE – Two out of three over fences last season at Ludlow and Market Rasen before pulling up at Stratford but makes a return to hurdles this afternoon on his first run since mid-July. Better handicapped over the smaller obstacles for trainer Oliver Sherwood and a market watch may help assess his chances but expected back over fences sooner rather than later and may well improve for the race.

6 MUTHABIR – Steps back up in trip after finishing a twelve length third over two miles five at Ludlow when coming from off the pace. His last win was over this trip at Taunton off a pound higher so there is every reason to expect a big run now, though the stable are none from five in the last two weeks which has to be seen as a bit of a negative for his chances.

7 TEAK – Three wins in total over hurdles but none since September 2014 when winning off a rating of 122. A run of thirty losses has followed (including on the flat) and he races off a mark of 114 this afternoon and has the bonus of Richard Johnson in the saddle which intrigues, and if he strips fitter for his Huntingdon fourth, he could yet challenge for the places at least.

8 NIGHT GENERATION – A narrow winner at Huntingdon last time out when beating Kings Sensation by three-quarters of a length when staying on dourly over a furlong further and put up only the four pounds for this afternoon’s event. That was his first win over hurdles on his tenth attempt but he looked as if he had a bit up his sleeve if needed and he won’t be far away at the finish again this afternoon.

9 KINGS TEMPTATION – Just a pound better off with Night generation now after being put up three pounds for finishing second at Huntingdon last time out which seems harsh in the circumstances. He may well have won that day had he not blundered badly three out that day but with no guarantee of a clear round here either with a history of mistakes, he is hard to make a good argument for here for trainer Ben Case and jockey Daryl Jacob.