3.00pm Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 14/07/2017

Ten years of past results show that not one favourite has passed the post in front with winners at prices up to 40/1 and a 25/1 winner thanks to Mark Johnston’s fourth consecutive winner last year with Ode To Evening. Andrew Balding has won it twice in that time while the winning weight range has been from nine stone seven all the way down to eight stone five. Luckily, we have put together a runner by runner race preview for you, complete with our expert tip.

IN SUMMARY: If DAAWY can improve with more experience as much as expected then he looks the value call here on only his fourth start for the very much in-form William Haggas stable. He can only get better and still looked green when second last time out and could have too much for Titi Makfi who keeps on improving but may have something to find at these weights.

1 LESHLAA – One of two Godolphin runners, in this case trained by Saeed Bin Suroor who is in great form with seven winners from their last fourteen runners for a superb 50% strike rate. Lightly raced with six starts for two wins at Kempton and here on the Rowley mile, the son of Street Cry was last seen at Ascot when outpaced over the mile in the Britannia Stakes, but ought to a lot happier stepped back up to this trip. Left on the same rating of 103 that is a full thirteen pounds higher than his last winning mark and it may well be that he is simply in the grip of the handicapper.

2 SPEEDO BOY – James Doyle has been booked to ride the son of Vision D’Etat as he is dropped back in to handicaps company having found Listed and Group Three class beyond him in his last two outings. He did win a minor Listed event at Fontainebleau in March but was last seen when a seven and a half length sixth in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot when looking one paced over this trip but may do better here for trainer Ian Williams who are currently hitting a 12% strike rate with two winners from seventeen runners in the last fourteen days.

3 MEDIEVAL – Yet to win as a three-year-old for Paul Cole despite taking two races at Newbury and Epsom as a juvenile and only managed an eight and a half length ninth of twenty-nine at Royal Ascot last time out in the Britannia Stakes, and behind a running on Leshlaa. Meets that rival on two pounds better terms for two and a quarter lengths and ought to at least finish closer if he stays this trip which seems unlikely on breeding.

4 TITI MAKFI – Four wins from four starts this season have to make the Mark Johnston filly a major player here though she is stepping up in class after taking a Class Three handicap over half a furlong further at Chester last time out. She has been put up another five pounds for her last win which will obviously make life harder for her here but who is to say she cannot improve further. With her trainer’s record in this race, she seems sure to be involved in the finish with a clear run and is not passed over lightly.

5 COLIBRI – Trainer Hugo Palmer is heading for the top from his Newmarket base but even he may struggle to win this with the son of Redoute’s Choice who tries this trip for the very first time. He is lightly raced with just the five career starts and a win at Brighton but after a twelve and a half length sixteenth over a mile last time out in the Britannia Stakes he has an awful lot more to find and at the prices looks poor value on what we have seen so far.

6 MARZOUQ – One of the few here who sidestepped Royal Ascot and it will be interesting to see if that pays dividends. In some ways his consistency has been his undoing with five top four places since his maiden win at Chelmsford last September keeping his handicap mark on the high side, and Jeremy Noseda’s charge has been put up another five pounds after finishing a head second to I’vegotthepower (who has won since) at Goodwood which seems pretty harsh. Unless the added trip brings about some serious improvement, he does look to be out of this at the weights.

7 MONTICELLO – The second of the Mark Johnston pair and interesting if only because Gerald Mosse has been booked to ride. He does arrive with course and distance experience after finishing second here in both of his last two races but has been put up an added three pounds for a length and a half second to Banditry last month which will make life difficult. He looks a difficult ride and can pull too hard for his own good sometimes, but if the French jockey can get him to settle here he could yet prove to be a very serious challenger, and we may not have seen the best of him yet.

8 DAAWY – Less of a dark horse and more of an unexposed sort with any amount of improvement possible after just the three races. William Haggas has been very patient with the son of Teofilo who was a weakening sixth on his Newmarket debut but showed the benefit of that run with a five length romp at Ripon. One more run saw him sent to Doncaster when he finished second to Good Omen after somehow finding himself short of room in a four-horse field when his inexperience saw him intimidated, but he will get better race on race and his astute handler continues in great form with over seventeen points of profit in the last two weeks.

9 OASIS CHARM – First time cheekpieces and the Godolphin second string according to the colours but Charlie Appleby’s son of Oasis Dream could be well weighted here if he can repeat his Leicester maiden win. Sadly he hasn’t built on that in two outings since with a sixth of nine on the Rowley mile here and a thirteenth of eighteen when tried over twelve furlongs at Royal Ascot though that may have been a step too far and could be best ignored.

10 CULLINGWORTH – Richard Fahey’s Kodiac gelding did win on his seasonal return at Musselburgh but has been beaten three times since with a three and a quarter length fifth of twelve at York last time out when possibly left with a bit too much to do. He ran on well that day and could go well if kept closer to the early pace today off the same rating but others still appeal that little bit more.

11 ATKINSON GRIMSHAW – Has to carry two pounds more than his allotted weight of seven stone twelve but runs off a featherweight regardless for a horse who has won his last two starts, one each at Wolverhampton and Chester over one mile one and a half furlongs and then a mile and a half plus. Both were in lower grade and he will need to do better now but David Probert suggested there may be more to come after last time saying Atkinson Grimshaw is a tricky individual, he didn’t want to go in the stalls and had a look around in front. He could be a nice horse if he straightens out and he’s going the right way, and he could go better than his odds suggest under the evergreen Jimmy Quinn.

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