3.00pm Newcastle Tips & Betting Preview 22/03/2017

This is an interesting maiden over 1m 2f, see our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: There are a few in this that will want further and it could pay to stick with James Bethell’s CRAY. He showed potential on his last run behind a couple of useful types and the step up in trip should bring about some more improvement. Wefait is an obvious danger but may have a few issues whilst the market will guide about the chances of Lopes Dancer off a long break.

1 HURRICANE HOLLOW – Starts his flat career today following success in a bumper and two hurdles races. Today’s trip of 1m 2f is probably just on the sharp side so it’ll be interesting to see how he will be ridden but he’s obviously a horse with potential although he is returning off a 459-day break. He gives away weight to rivals with a fitness edge so he may not be seen to best effect today and the market should guide.

2 IBREEQ – Four starts to date including two bumper efforts and he’s beaten very few rivals in those starts. He’s kept in maiden company and he will do much better when handicapped and dropped into weaker races than this. Should be a big price here and impossible to make a case for.

3 LOPES DANCER – Yet to win in 8 starts but has placed on four of those runs and has been sent off favourite on both of his last starts. He’s not been seen since May 2016 and that’s an obvious negative given he has probably had some issues and his trainer isn’t renowned for getting one fit off a break. On form alone he has a decent chance but the market will be the best guide to his chance off a long break. Market support would be very significant.

4 ABSOLUTE ANGEL – This bumper winner is an interesting runner for Peter Niven given he’s now had his attentions turned to a flat career. He was outpaced over 1m 2f on his last start and it would be something of a small surprise to see him come out victorious over this trip today. He’ll do better when entered into handicaps and stepped up in trip for a trainer that does relatively well here (5 winners from 36 runners).

5 DAN’S HOPEFORGLORY – Second runner for Peter Niven in this and he finished ahead of Absolute Angel when the pair met at Newcastle last time out. He’s bred to enjoy this trip more than his stablemate but his only start to date didn’t exactly suggest he’d win a maiden on his second start. Worthy of respect now he’s had that initial racecourse experience but a surprise to see him win this.

6 DELPHYNE – Well-beaten in a bumper and has run over shorter than this since switched to the flat. She was readily outpaced in February over a trip too short (7 furlongs) although she did improve for the step up to 1m 1 1/2f at Wolverhampton last time out when only beaten 4 1/4 lengths. Tricky to know if she can replicate that effort and she’ll receive a handicap mark today so is probably best watched for now.

7 HEAVENLY GAIT – Sent off 33/1, 100/1 and 100/1 on his three career starts to date and easy to see why given he’s been beaten out of sight on each occasion. He had his attentions switched to the flat on his last start over C&D but it would be a major surprise to see him build on that and come out victorious here. Trainer is without a win in 10 attempts here and his runner is avoided today.

8 CRAY – One of the few runners in the field not to have started life in a bumper and has shown some fair form in maidens at Newcastle to date. Connections keep him in maiden company and he’s worth respect in this based on his relatively decent run behind Harlow on his last start. He looked slightly outpaced so today’s extra 2 furlongs will suit and that piece of form is one of the strongest in this race. Respected here for a trainer with a 27% strike rate here.

9 REDARNA – Beaten 10 1/2 and 15 lengths on both starts to date over 5 furlongs and a mile. His last start was in better company than this but it would be a surprise to see him get off the mark here for a yard that’s been incredibly quiet on the flat this year. The step up in trip should suit and he’s not terribly bred so may be capable of better once entered into handicaps.

10 WEFAIT – Harbour Watch colt bought for £32,000 as a yearling and has an interesting profile. He’s run two races to date and they’ve come a long time apart (one in June and one in November) and he arrives here off another lengthy break (126 days). He’s probably quite a backward sort although his run at Sandown on debut would give him a very good chance here. He steps up 3 furlongs in trip today and it remains to be seen how well he will handle that although he is related to a winner over further than this. Has leading claims but something unnerving about his overall profile.

11 HOT GOSSIP – Beaten 27 lengths on debut, finishing last of 10 and arrives here off a 301 day break. She steps up in trip by four furlongs here and there’s a question mark as to how well she’ll handle the racecourse experience today. She receives lots of weight as a 3yo but she’s very hard to recommend on form. Best watched in this.

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