3.00pm Brighton Tips & Betting Preview 22/08/2016

Our race preview takes a look at an interesting Nursery at Brighton. See our betting tips below to find a horse who can out-run her odds and notch up a 2nd career success.

IN SUMMARY: The claims for Dixie’s Double and Goodwood Crusader are glaringly obvious, more so the latter who was hampered on his latest start and is interesting in his first nursery. However, a chance is taken on DROP KICK MURPHI who won well at Bath on his penultimate start and although only 5th on nursery debut, he didn’t have a clear run and this looks much easier, so he is given the nod.

1 DIXIE’S DOUBLE – Won by an easy 2 3/4 lengths at Lingfield latest (5f, Good to Firm), but its hard to know what she really achieved there as it was a very weak maiden. Goes back up to 6f which shouldn’t be a problem and has a good chance in this, but needs some improvement.

2 KARTINE – Won on debut at Ripon (5f, Good), but form has nosedived completely since then, as she hasn’t beaten a single rival home, baring in mind that is a combined 31 horses over 3 races. Switched yards to William Knight but only a watching brief today as she can’t be backed with any confidence.

3 DROP KICK MURPHi – Won at Bath on penultimate start (5f, Good) before being 5th on Nursery debut at Nottingham. He didn’t have a clear run that day, and was arguably in a much more difficult race, so he has definite possibilities in what looks like a very ordinary nursery. Also dropped 3lb for that effort which further aids his cause.

4 BOBBY VEE – Won last time out at Leicester reasonably comfortably (6f, Good to Firm) showing a good attitude when under pressure. Nursery debut today and has definite claims if building on that win and needs plenty of respect from stall 1.

5 GOODWOOD CRUSADER – Carried right, hampered and then ran on strongly on a day where nothing fell right for him at Wolverhampton latest (5f, AW). The step up to 6f should suit but there is a question mark with the surface, as his only turf run was on debut when running poorly at Leicester. Can probably be forgiven that as it was most likely needed, but still raises a slight question mark.

6 AT THE BEACH – Form seems to be regressing, with his poorest effort to date latest when 14th of 15 at Goodwood in July (7f, Good to Firm). Excuses there as the trip was probably inadequate and it was a much tougher race (won by Bear Valley) and he was probably in way over his head that day. Penultimate effort wasn’t much better however when last in an ordinary Nursery at Lingfield (6f, Good to Firm) so has a lot to prove at present, passed over.

7 HOPE AGAINST HOPE – Beaten favourite and bitterly disappointing when last on Nursery debut at Catterick latest (6f, Good). Has claims on earlier form, finishing 2nd at both Redcar (5f, Good to Firm) and Cartmel (6f, Good to Firm) in May, so can’t be dismissed with much confidence. Too much too prove for us, though.

myracing Forecast Prices: 2/1 Dixie’s Double, 3/1 Goodwood Crusader, 4/1 Bobby Vee, 6/1 Hope Against Hope, 8/1 At The Beach, 9/1 Drop Kick Murphi, 12/1 Kartine

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