2.40pm Goodwood Tips & Betting Preview 06/05/2017

Four renewals of this seven furlong handicap have seen four different winning trainers, four different winning jockeys, and one winning favourite with Absolutely So in 2014, but a 14/1 winner with Russian Realm last season for ex-jockey Richard Hughes. Trainer Richard Hannon seems keen to win it this year and had multiple early entries, but he will hopefully rely on the interesting Eltezam (14/1) who may yet be very well handicapped. His form as a two-year-old suggested that he would be better than a handicapper, with a debut third to Birchwood followed by a maiden win, but after that he was stepped up in class without being disgraced. A third to Buratino in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot was followed by a fourth to Shalaa at Newmarket in the July Stakes and both performances held plenty of promise for his three-year-old season. Sadly, the whole of last year was a write-off and he was not seen again until this March when tenth of eleven in a Listed race at Wolverhampton. He then followed that up with a fifth of ten to Solar Flair in a Kempton handicap, but there is every chance it has taken both of those races to get him fully tuned up after his long lay-off. If that is correct he could be at his peak now, in which case he has to be of interest. However, he is a big risk for a stable that started off well but have dropped away lately with a mere 9% of winners in the last 14 days.

Yorkshire trainer Jason Ward has moved quickly to book Graham Lee to ride Roll On Rory (14/1 Each Way) and he has a very solid each way chance this afternoon, and at a decent price too with any luck. His small yard have not had too many runners of late (one in the last two weeks), but the four-year-old gelding has been shrewdly placed so far to win five of his 15 career starts at Carlisle, Pontefract, Chester, Newmarket and Musselburgh and the yard is looking to add another venue to that list here on his first visit this far south. Although sent off the 9/2 favourite on his return at Musselburgh, he looked as if the race would do him good when eighth and can only improve. However, he will be fully race fit now and could well be a very different proposition and looks like the value call in a particularly tricky race.

Ice Age (8/1) catches the eye for trainer Eve Johnson Houghton after he scooted up hard, held by two and a quarter lengths at Brighton last time out, albeit in a much weaker race. The son of Frozen Power proved that he handles quicker going that day and with no more rain forecast it may well be Good to Firm come race day. The ability to handle the Brighton track will stand him in good stead for the Goodwood undulations which is a huge positive, and something plenty of punters fail to take into account. Although he has been upped in the weights by the handicapper, he could well be improving slowly and could offer an each way alternative to the better fancied horses.

Trainer William Haggas heads the statistics here, with seven winners from his last 26 runners for a 27% success rate and close to five points of level stakes profit. He has the intriguing Zwayyan (4/1) entered here who is in the same ownership as Eltezam (Al Shaqab Racing), but he may well be allowed to compete regardless. The four-year-old son of top sire Pivotal was unraced at the age of two and won two of his five races last season, one each at Lingfield and Haydock. His last run was a four and three quarter length fifth to God Willing in a mile handicap at Newmarket, but he is a late developer and may well do better this season with more wins expected.

Brian Meehan is the most profitable trainer in this race with over 16 points of profit in the last fortnight. He has Fox Trotter (22/1) lined up for his return to action after his last run when eighth at Leicester over a mile and half a furlong. Tom Queally failed to get him to bounce out of the stalls that day, giving away far too many lengths to have any chance in a run perhaps best ignored. The son of Bushranger did however win his maiden at Doncaster and placed at Newbury, yet he does have plenty to find on the form book. Although when a stable is in good form all sorts of strange things seem to happen.

Finally, local trainers like to target Goodwood whenever possible and Amanda Perrett has entered Lightning Charlie (8/1) here as he looks to go one better than his two second places so far this season. They followed three runners-up spots at the end of last season, giving the five-year-old an unwanted reputation as a professional loser. But his trainer is prepared to do everything possible to win him his fourth race today, although in reality it still seems fairly unlikely.

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