2.30pm Musselburgh Tips & Betting Preview 30/08/2017

A field of 11 go to post in this Class 5 handicap raced over a mile. See our betting tips and the full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: LIL SOPHELLA is now eleven pounds below her last winning mark. She showed a little more at Thirsk when not beaten far to suggest she is close to cashing in. She looks overpriced in this at a double figure price and gets the vote. Billy Roberts is another below his last winning mark which makes him well worth considering in this mile contest while Ellaal is a winner over this course and distance, he looks off a smart solid enough to get involved.

1 BILLY ROBERTS – The handicapper has dropped him 3lbs following a decent enough run at Yarmouth last time out to finish third of 5, beaten 5 lengths. That leaves him 2lbs below his last winning mark and he scored over C&D in a much stronger race than this last summer. Conditions will be in his favour and he should run a big race today with Connor Beasley back in the saddle.

2 CRAZY TORNADO – 7lbs higher than his last winning mark following a comfortable victory in a Class 6 event at Ayr last month. He ran well off this mark last time out in a Class 5 event but he will need to do even more today to get involved and this mark may just be beyond him. However, connections utilise a 5lb claimer to shift some of the burden which will certainly help.

3 LIL SOPHELLA – Has slipped a long way down the weights over the last year or so with her last winning mark coming off 11lbs higher. She was rated 21lbs higher than this just under a year ago and her run last time out suggested she’s fallen to a workable mark. A 2 1/2 length defeat in a Class 5 event at Thirsk gives her a huge chance in this combined with a further 2lb drop in the weights, she looks overpriced and gets the vote.

4 MASARZAIN – Has done well for the Archie Watson stable since arriving, notching up one win and a placed effort from three starts. A mark of 66 looks reasonable based on his profile and this yard can certainly improve a horse so he’s worth consideration in this. Ed Greatrex claims a useful 3lbs off his back today and conditions should be fine although he is yet to win on ground better than Good.

5 RELIGHT MY FIRE – Another runner that arrives here in decent form following a host of placed efforts and one win over C&D. He’s been dropped a pound for his latest third place effort which looks generous but that did come in a weak Class 6 event and this is harder. A useful claimer is booked to ride in this but her mount looks up against it on these terms in a better grade and others are preferred.

6 FLINTY FELL – Remains a maiden from 13 starts and confidence is beginning to wear thin with him. He’s down another 2lbs in the weights today and he’s stepped back up in trip which isn’t sure to suit. He was keen last time out and this longer trip could unsettle him even more although the booking of Joe Fanning is a positive sight. The percentage call is to oppose him in this.

7 REMEMBER ROCKY – Lucy Normile’s runner is one of the pace angles in this given he’s usually ridden prominently. He ended a long losing run in a Class 6 handicap earlier this month and he’s 4lbs higher than that mark today. Connor Murtagh is booked to ride again which is positive and he could take them along in this although whether he can hold out long enough to win is questionable.

8 ELLAAL – Thoroughly exposed sort who makes his 87th career start today. He’s a C&D winner and was successful in a Class 6 event at Redcar earlier this month off just 2lbs lower. He remains on a workable mark and the booking of Paul Mulrennan catches the eye so market support would make him of interest. The step up in grade is going to test him more but he has definite place claims in this.

9 FORESIGHT – Kevin Ryan’s yard is operating at a healthy 15% strike rate at present and he runs a lightly-raced sort in this. His sole success came in a Hamilton maiden over 6 furlongs for David Simcock and he’s fallen through the weights for this yard since early this year. He races off a 5lb lower mark today and a first-time tongue tie should help. Watch for market support.

10 DANNY MC D – Makes just his sixth career start today and he’s been beaten a long way in both maidens and handicaps to date. He races off a 3lb lower mark today but that doesn’t look as if it will be enough to inspire a better performance, particularly in Class 5 company. Best watched in this although the yard have an impressive 27% strike rate at present.

11 CYFLYMDER – Makes his 119th career start today at the grand age of 11. He’s obviously not the horse he once was and he remains 2lbs higher than his last winning mark which came in a Class 6 Lingfield handicap. This is significantly tougher and he’s unlikely to trouble the judge in this. Best watched.

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