2.25pm Salisbury Tips & Betting Preview 12/05/2016

2.25pm Salisbury – Bathwick Tyres EBF Stallions Breeding Winners Fillies’ Handicap (Class Four) – 1m 1f 198yds

Three-year-old handicaps are notoriously difficult to solve with some going backwards from their juvenile efforts, and others improving out of all recognition, hence just the one winning favourite in the seven running of this contest, back at the beginning in 2009! Roger Charlton is a trainer we have all the time in the World for, and his way of improving horses over time is simply legendary in the sport. Intermittent (3/1) does have to shoulder top weight of nine stone seven less Kieran Shoemark’s five pound claim, but is 100% race fit after two runs already this season, and at the top of her game after a win at Wolverhampton in late March. That was only a maiden but she did it well, pulling away for a three and a quarter length victory, and even off of 79 today we suspect she will be sent off favourite, and put in a bold attempt at landing the odds for us this afternoon.

We could be wrong but as things stand we would also expect Purple Magic (9/2) to go on from what she achieved at two. A third first time out at Nottingham at odds of 33/1 was perhaps better than originally expected, and she soon showed the benefit of that experience with a head victory at Chelmsford with the third two and three quarter lengths away. The second third and fourth have all won since so the form looks above average but assessing her future improvement is difficult so we have looked at her breeding. Her half sister Phillipina was far better at three tan she was at two and ran in Listed class (unsuccessfully), so there is good reason to hope she can do even better this season, and with the Michael Bell stable having two winners and numerous places in the past week, there is every reason to expect a decent run this afternoon.

Trainer Clive Cox must be getting a bit frustrated with Zeehan (4/1) after the daughter of Aussie Rules placed yet again last time out when runner up to Daisy Bere at Nottingham over this trip on soft ground. Four races without a success cannot make her any kind of good thing, and there is always a fear she is not a natural leader and simply will not go past the horse in front, but they are yet to resort to any kind of headgear, which suggests they feel she is genuine enough. On the down side she is yet to win, but on the bright side they have ignored the maiden route and must feel she is potentially well handicapped, though she has been put up two pounds for her last run which cannot help her cause.

Sunscape (6/1) won at the third attempt for Hughie Morrison, and looks just the sort to go on from that in handicap company, but whether she is well weighted off a mark of 72 is debatable. She did win her maiden at Chelmsford when running on strongly over a mile and runner up Lilly Vega has won since, but she was giving the Morrison horse three pounds that day, was only beaten a length, and is now rated 72 herself which suggests Sunscape may be a pound or two over the correct amount. That said, who is to say she wont improve way past that form at three, and especially with the extra distance to travel, and in a tricky race she looks to have as good a chance as any assuming race fitness, of course.

Lastly, Auntie Barber (6/1) also won last time out, easily beating Le Tissier five lengths at Brighton in a fast ground maiden over this trip. It was one of the weakest fields of all time so the form doesn’t add up to much, but she could do no more than score impressively and it will be interesting to see if she goes on from that, or if that is as good as she is.

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