2.25pm Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 20/04/2017

A tricky looking seven furlong handicap comes next on the card. Charlie Fellowes won this with Accession last season and so it makes good sense to start with him again, especially as he is either at or near the top of most of the early betting markets. In April 2016 off a handicap mark of 91 he easily drew clear here to win by six lengths, but that was on soft ground and he may need those conditions to be seen at his best again. Currently, the ground looks likely to be good or possibly faster, and off a mark nine pounds higher this afternoon he seems unlikely to find things quite as straightforward. His stable are sitting on a none from five record in the last two weeks which fails to inspire. At the age of eight he may well start to go backwards and, despite some solid form in decent races at up to Listed class last Autumn, others appeal that little bit more.

Looking for trainers in amongst the winners and they are thin on the ground here. However, John Gosden has had five winners from his last 18 runners for a 28% success rate and a small four points plus profit to level stakes. He has entered Castle Harbour here as the four-year-old gelding looks for win number three on just his seventh start. Gelded in January, he had his first run since when a well beaten ninth at Doncaster in the Listed mile. But he should improve for that run and will be happier dropped in trip and on faster going. Add a return to handicap class and his chance is there for all to see. However, he will need to come on a good few pounds (which seems likely) on his latest effort to get involved in the finish, with Frankie Dettori in the saddle.

Chris Wall is a very likeable trainer by Newmarket standards and seemed to feel that Mix And Mingle had 1000 Guineas chances last season. However, it was not to be and she failed to win a race in six runs last year. Dropped in to handicap company here, she will not get many better chances than this to win another race. If she is anywhere near as good as they previously thought then she must have a very serious chance this afternoon, even if her stable are another struggling for success, with none from four in the last 14 days.

In-form trainers deserve their place in any race previews and Richard Hannon remains in good sorts, with 11 winners from their last 50 runners for a 22% strike rate. Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Tabarrak, a four-year-old son of Acclamation, won his final race last season by a head at Ascot from Atlantic Sun and has been put up a huge eight pounds for that effort. The seven furlongs is his best trip and, although he has clearly had a few problems (he has not been seen in almost a year now), he was always thought of as a big backward sort and may well improve with age and maturity.

If money talks then Salateen will go close for the David O’Meara stable who have moved quickly to acquire the services of Ryan Moore in the saddle here. He will have a fitness edge over some after five runs already in 2017. He has had a pair of victories at Meydan and Wolverhampton followed by a good third to Sovereign Debt in the All Weather mile championships when sent clear early before being caught close home and beaten a neck and a length. The class of that race was similar to today and it makes sense to think that Ryan will have suggested coming here having ridden him in Surrey. However, whether he should be so close to the head of the market seems open to debate.

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