2.15pm Hereford Tips & Betting Preview 23/11/2016

Race 4 at Hereford is a conditional jockeys’ race over 2m2f. A tricky betting heat, see our betting tips and full race preview below to get your head around the contest.

IN SUMMARY: Show’s Over is 2-4 since the introduction of the visor and could still be improving but today ground is a concern, with Copper Birch also having claims as he’s still seemingly well treated and returned with a dead heat at Ffos Las. However, one final chance is given to CHANKILLO, who has a change of headgear after a flat run at Warwick. On previous evidence he runs better on softer ground and with that combined with the new headgear, that may be enough to propel him to his first win since March.

1 COPPER BIRCH – Returned from an absence when just caught on the post to Dead Heat at Ffos Las (2m7f, Good). Went a bit off the boil last season but for the main he was very consistent throughout 2015 and that return is encouraging. The ground shouldn’t be a problem at all and has strong claims with Cian Maher taking off 10lb, which he may need as he is off of top weight.

2 NORTHANDSOUTH – Won twice over hurdles this year but both chase runs so far were disappointing and lacked any fluency. Would need to have improved his jumping significantly as he goes against some seasoned chasers, but is still well treated based off of his hurdles runs. Interesting.

3 LORD LANDEN – Won at Cheltenham in a slog back in December last year (3m1f, Soft) but it hasn’t really been plain sailing since. He usually travels well, but doesn’t find a great deal for pressure which is stopping him from winning races at present. More convincing options in the field.

4 SUPERMAN DE LA RUE – Well and truly beaten in two Hurdles runs in April and June and previous chase runs don’t read well – 6P. Clearly still has a lot to prove and best watched.

5 CHANKILLO – Laboured when last of 3 at Warwick a few weeks ago (2m4f, Good) and last won back in March at Market Rasen (2m3f, Soft). Based on that previous effort and older evidence the slight drop back in trip is a good idea and his headgear is changed today in a bit to relight the fire. The return to softer ground should also be a huge help and there is a lot of hope that he can outrun his likely double figure odds.

6 TRIGGYWINKLE – Readily dispatched a field at Wincanton on Thursday (1m7f, Good) and is only 3lb higher today. This soft ground however seems like a hindrance and its dubious as to whether this trip will suit on previous efforts. Too many questions today but place claims if brushing those factors aside.

7 SHOW’S OVER – 2-4 since the introduction of the visor and could still be improving, with his latest win at Ludlow 2 weeks ago (1m7f, Good). Has a good chance as the trip will not be an issue, however there are big question marks to answer regarding the ground, as his previous 3 runs on softer surfaces have not yielded good results. If that isn’t an issue there is no question he will be in with a huge shout.

8 BALLYEGAN – Reasonable reappearance when 5th of 11 at Ludlow in an Amatuer Rides event back in October (2m4f, Good). He’s now back on his last winning mark but hasn’t been convincing on many occasions in the past and the percentage call is to avoid today.

myracing Forecast Prices: 2/1 Copper Birch, 11/4 Show’s Over, 7/2 Triggywinkle, 6/1 Northandsouth, 8/1 Lord Landen, 12/1 Chankillo, 14/1 Ballyegan, 20/1 Superman De La Rue

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